A DAILY INNOCULATION AGAINST POLITICAL AND CULTURAL BULLSHIT

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"Plus ça change, cher, n'est-ce pas?" - Mémé Aureole Petite


"I'm desperate, Johnny. There's nowhere left to turn."
--- Watching Obama abandon the middle class

"I can't look at his face anymore. I can't listen to him speak. If I saw him in person, I'd throw my shoe."
--- Tweet takes the bold step of expressing his own opinion.

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Mr. Petite has been an adviser to both the Bush and Obama administrations (neither of which ever asked for his advice - and they certainly never took it, so don't blame Tweet) and is a Senior Fellow at (and is supported entirely by) the ETHICS AND THEORY INSTITUTE OF TERMINOLOGY (EATIT), a foundation underwritten by the parents of a United States Senator in return for Mr. Petite's silence on certain important matters. Which explains why he doesn't do TV.

Mr. Petite is a native of virtual New Orleans, and therefore a legal immigrant to his actual residence, so he has never had to do migrant farm work or landscaping. (He did do some shrimping in the virtual bayous on some of the days he played hookey from school.) The use of the word "onions" is metaphoric, or something. His sole contact with actual onions is in some of the better gumbos.

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Friday, October 31, 2008

SOMETHING LIKE THAT

Today McCain announced that Joe the Plumber is an American hero, and that he is going to take Joe to Washington if he wins. Let's see - national security adviser, chief of staff, Defense, State, the Treasury?

McCain's campaign is not American heroes, it's American Idol - which is the only place Joe the Plumber belongs. A McCain victory will indicate that we are the stupidest empire that ever lived - or that, being so stupid, it's time for the empire to end. Or for the end of democracy. Or something like that.

DISASTER

Is Sarah Palin capable of operating as president? Why not? She's smarter than Bush, and no more or less ignorant. She'd just re-enact the Bush presidency, with this one difference:

Because of his family's history and connections, Bush had to listen to some moderate voices. At least in the beginning, they held him back a little. Palin will listen to no moderate voices. She can be elected by right wing America, and she would be much more dangerous than Bush. There is no hope that she would, like Nixon and Reagan, make an opening to enemies. Unlike Bush, she knows what a neocon is and is one herself. She would be a complete disaster as president - the kind of disaster in which people would seriously plan to leave the country.

STAY HOME, PLEASE

So Reagan's chief of staff Ken Duberstein endorsed Obama. So what? People who could be influenced by things like this went to Obama months ago.

From what I've been reading, the current undecideds are people who are looking for perfection and not finding it, or people who are split because each candidate opposes something they want, or people who have no idea what they think.

I hope they all stay home.

And why are Powell, Duberstein, Eagleburger coming out and saying this now? They are doing their little bit to help McCain lose, so that in the wake of that loss they - the traditional conservatives - can take their party back. Or disassociating from McCain, for the same reason. I think before Palin they thought they would have some influence with McCain, but they see how he's run the campaign and don't think McCain will be able to put the brakes on party crazies, particularly with Palin on the bully pulpit.

Good luck to 'em. It won't work. The Republican party is not going back to its Bush I nature. And every one of these guys facilitated its mutation into the howling asylum it is now. They know Palin has a hold on the maniacs. Maybe they actually have some dislike for Know Nothings, but it's too late. It's done. Forget it.

OUTSIDE THE BOX

The essence of the McCain campaign is condemnation of intellectual curiosity, vivid discussion of ideas, or any discussion at all. It's the (barely) secular equivalent of exoommunication and a hard-line defense of orthodoxy. Think outside the box and you're anti-American. Exactly the kind of positioning that has brought us to our current pass. Never mind economics or foreign policy - it's this basic kind of Bush thinking that we'll get four more years of, and too many people think that would be just fine. Read.

DON'T NEED IT?

This suggests to me that the bank bailout was unnecessary, and was simply a gift to those few well-connected institutions around the Goldman Sachs nexus that needed help because of their own bad practices.

SHOCKER

This is stunning. I thought Bronfman was solid AIPAC

WILL THEY VOTE?

This is the great concern. Will these people vote?

Thursday, October 30, 2008

THE MARGIN

According to the Daily Kos national tracking poll, McCain has been doing exactly what he said he would do - picking up one point a day. The race is now 50-45. Obama's percentage hasn't moved, which suggests what I have been saying: any movement among undecideds will go to McCain.

What we are seeing is the Bradley effect, so to speak - only it isn't secret this time. These are voters who were reluctant to say they were going to vote against a black, but have decided at the last minute to announce themselves. There was never any possibility Obama could get these votes.

The big question, as I said a few days ago, is how many undecideds won't vote at all. Because that is going to be the margin of an Obama victory.

UPDATE: Obama is up one today. Surprise to me.

JOE

Hey, if your name is Joe, better change it - because nobody is going to take you seriously anymore.

A PRAYER

James Dobson has sent out a letter predicting, if Obama wins, terrorist attacks in American cities, churches losing their tax exempt status for not allowing gay marriages, pornography pushed in front of our children, doctors and nurses forced to perform abortions, euthanasia as commonplace, inner-city crime gone wild because of lack of gun ownership, home schooling banned, restricted religious speech, liberal censorship shutting down conservative talk shows, Christian publishers forced out of business, Israel nuked, power blackouts because of environmental restrictions, brave Christian resisters jailed by a liberal Supreme court, and finally, good Christian families emigrating to Australia and New Zealand.

On that final point, defining "good Christian families" as people who will believe this stuff: from his lips to God's ears. Which he says is something which happens regularly.

I DON'T WANT TO LOSE YOU

This was the first cut I did with D.C. Larue. The recording was terrible, and the whole thing didn't quite work - but there are parts of it I'm very proud of.

CATHEDRALS



Here's a very good interview with D.C. which tells the whole story of that collaboration. And I'm grateful to D.C. for his kind words.

GOOD MORNING MY LOVE

This is the last song I did with D.C. Larue. The best thing he ever wrote, and I loved the production. But by then he had no label, and we couldn't place the record. Since then I lost my copy of the mix, so I was delighted to find this video on YouTube. Still love it. Background vocals by the Harlem Boys Choir.


WHO HE THINKS HE IS

A realization: McCain's campaign is classically messianic. Here's how it goes:

Democrats are evil, Republicans are evil, big city people are evil, Wall Street is evil, the rest of the world is quintessentially evil - and the sole goal of all of them is to destroy you.

But I shall protect you, for I have been given the wisdom to correct every evil and counter every threat. You need not ask how I'll do that, or do anything at all except to believe in Me and follow Me.

It's that simple.

It's not just the campaign, but also McCain that's messianic. People who follow false messiahs will follow him. But if he loses, it's not just that he ran a bad campaign - it's also because of who he thinks he is.

YES!

Youbetcha! (Does anyone actually say that anymore south of Alaska?)

GENERATION WE

Obama's Kissemmee speech tonight was likely the best political speech I have ever heard. Of course, that's because he said everything I wanted to hear. But most importantly for me, he said that the Bible teaches him that we are our brothers' keepers, and specifically cited the Golden Rule. He said that sense of social obligation is what has been lost in the last eight years. That was critical to me.

Why?

First, because it points out how far right-wing evangelicals have strayed from Jesus' message - and this from a man who is born again. He threw back in their faces all the hate and contempt they preach. I never thought I would hear that from a presidential candidate.

And second because, since the Republicans have gotten down to class-war basics with their taunts of socialism, exposing the core of conservative philosophy, Obama met it with the essence of humanism, the call for mutual respect and thinking about things beyond one's own nose. It's been thirty years since the Me Generation came to power. Obama is calling out Generation We.

So now it's all been said. And we'll see.

Wednesday, October 29, 2008

BRADLEY EFFECT

I just caught the tail end of a Rachel Maddow comment that some people who have already voted don't know who they voted for. I didn't catch the numbers.

That's nonsense. They just don't want to say. And that's the classic expression of the Bradley effect.

LET THE CHIPS FALL

I don't think the 30 minutes did anything for Obama. But that's probably a good thing. It's speculated that he bought the time in case he had to meet some emergency. He didn't have to.

The choice is clear - and as I've said before, we're going to find out who America is. I no longer care who says what. Let's just get it over with.

By the way, I think the race will tighten substantially. There is no upside for Obama now, and there is a downside. The only question is, how many voters will McCain's negativity peel off. Obama's under 50%. That was a floor like 8,000 on the Dow. I don't like seeing that, but what can you do? I do not believe Obama could have done any of it any better. The message is out there. People buy it or they don't.

Let's GOTV, stop voter obstruction and let the chips fall.

And, by the way - it is foolish to say McCain's choice of Palin was a mistake. If he wins, he could not have done it without her.

PRESUMPTUOUS

McCain attacks Obama for postponing the World Series with his speech. First of all, he isn't postponing it - it's supposed to start at 8:30 and it will. What Fox decided to do was take Obama's money and cut out the half hour pre-game show. So the allegation is a lie.

It's also stupid - because anyone out there who thinks the World Series is more important than the election isn't likely to get out and vote.

This is an extension of the argument that Obama is presumptuously acting presidential. If you recall, I mentioned a while ago that I hoped he did just that. If you think's it presumptuous to act presidential in a time of crisis when we have no president - or you think it preferable that a candidate NOT act presidential until he's actually president - you're going to vote for McCain anyhow.

On the other hand, it would probably have been safer had Obama, with the lead he now has, not done this. On the third hand, he didn't have that lead when he set this up. I think it's worth the risk.

BETTER IDEA

Bail out the auto industry? No way. These are companies which for years have made bad products no one wanted and believed they could make the public want what they made, rather than making what the public wanted - and what the environment, the economy and national security needed. Since the introduction of the VW, I have seen no serious attempt by that industry to change the way it thinks.

What I WOULD do, though, is provide government financing - and government scientific help - to allow a new management group which had the ideas and the skills to move those industries into the 21st century, and the conscience not to trash their workers, to buy out GM and Chrysler at the present value of their stocks.

LET ME KNOW

Somebody let me know, now that Charlie Crist's national political ambitions are derailed at least temporarily, whether that marriage ever gets done.

SENSE OF HONOR

A guy was killed in a car accident today. Local TV interviewed his son. The kid was not crying and looked as if he hadn't cried.

TV covers things like this to satisfy the public's desire for the maudlin. But they're not finding the maudlin any more. Why? People who will talk to the media right after a family death are thinking about themselves, not the deceased. People who are genuinely upset won't talk to the media.

You can't cover a genuine sense of honor, because it negates coverage. You have no sense of honor if you try to cover it. This kind of media is of exhibitionists for voyeurs by pimps.

THAT'S ALL

Really, folks - this is not hard to understand.

When the stock market gets low enough, people start to buy up bargains. As the price begins to go up, computers trigger buy orders and individual investors buy so as not to be left behind by one of the recent huge jumps. When stocks get high enough - usually at the end of the day - people sell to take profits. Because investors have no confidence that today's rise will still be around tomorrow, profit-taking sell-offs are occurring on a one day time horizon - triggering computer sell-offs and thus contributing to the volatility.

That's all it is. Nothing more.

By the way, I think the market bottom is 8000. That's not to say it won't occasionally slip lower, or that some disaster couldn't change that bottom. But I think the market will oscillate between essentially 8-9000 at least until the election, when I'll need to take another look.

GOOD ADVICE

McCain supporters are recommending that he name his Secretary of the Treasury now, because "to many Americans -- Independents, Republicans and Democrats -- in today's economic environment, the Treasury Secretary is more important than the selection of the VP and second only to the President. Mitt Romney is vetted, presidential, and ran Bain Capital, which is hugely successful and the Goldman Sachs of private equity."

In principle, it's a good idea, and I think Obama should do the same. But - the next Treasury Secretary will be the head of the Goldman Sachs of private equity - which might be the only thing worse and less controlled than Goldman Sachs? There's a stack of videos proving Romney lies for private gain. God, I hope McCain follows this advice.

Incidentally, why do Republicans still not realize that. when there's video showing you've taken two opposite positions depending on whose vote you're after, people aren't going to trust you very much? I wouldn't expect Republicans to have any shame about lying, but not to understand where the public is coming from?

Also incidentally, the Treasury Secretary is not supposed to make big policy on his own - like Paulson is. He's supposed to follow the policy decisions of the president. The intent here is to fix two bad nominations - McCain's and Palin's - with the pseudo-nomination of Romney. Oh, but it's much too late ...
See more funny videos at Funny or Die

WHY IT IS NECESSARY TO GET EVERY REPUBLICAN OUT OF OFFICE - EXCEPT, MAYBE, CHARLIE CRIST

Read.

And ...
Florida Governor Charlie Crist extended voting hours in that state, citing huge early voting lines and waits of up to five or six hours in some areas.

But in neighboring Georgia, Secretary of State Karen Handel is refusing to do the same. On Monday, some voters waited eight hours to vote because of machine glitches. There were other reports of voters waiting an average of three to four hours to vote in heavily Democratic and urban areas.

In response to a request from the state Democratic Party to extend voting hours in light of these long waiting times, Handel said no:

Handel said Georgia law includes no such mechanism that would allow her, or Gov. Sonny Perdue, to do it.

Handel also said she doesn’t think it’s necessary, and called Kidd’s letter emblematic of an "orchestrated effort of that political party across the country."

The corruption is endemic and goes down to the lowest level. All Katherine Harrises must be returned to the private sector.

Maybe excepting Charlie Crist ...

NO SHIT, SHERLOCK

Did anybody not see this coming?

Tuesday, October 28, 2008

NO SUBSTANCE

There's a Nextel commercial which has been on quite a while and prefigured Joe the Plumber. In the commercial, firefighters have taken over Congress, all dressed in firefighter garb. Their chief picks up a packet of papers and says "An awful lot of paper to say we need clean water. Do we need clean water, guys?" The assemblage votes yes, and the chief says "This is the easiest job I've ever had."

So what have they done? They've decided they need clean water. Not how to get it, or what it will cost.

That's Joe the Plumber government. All surface, no substance. And that has been McCain in this campaign.

NOT POSSIBLE

How is it possible that voters are still undecided a week before the election? I think it's not.

Seems to me present undecideds are divided into two groups: Bradley effect voters, who will vote for McCain but won't say so, and people who will not vote at all. How big of a kick McCain will get out of them depends on the numbers of the first group. But the race will be tighter than it looks.

UNBELIEVABLE

Read the comments to this post to understand how truly stupid some people are. As I've said before, can't we give them their own country and see what they do with it?

FRIEDMAN AGAIN

Every time I think Tom Friedman is screwing his head back on straight, he unscrews it. Today I note an op ed in which he praises financial risk-taking as opposed to recklessness, and then says "we must not overshoot in regulating the markets just because they overshot in their risk-taking. We need to fix capitalism, not install socialism."

That a supposed center intellectual would throw around the word "socialism" in the current context is shameful.

What is socialism to Friedman? The federal government owning bank stocks, which he says will lead to banks being unwilling to take entrepreneurial risks.

Firstly, I'm not aware that the government owning bank stocks is socialism. If you consider it a partial nationalization, as far as I remember some pretty far right governments have done that. Socialism, as far as I understand it, is a tendency to equalize wealth through government in major ways. That is not the intent, and will not be the result, of federal ownership of some percentage of bank stock. State ownership of corporations is, in fact, fascism. If Friedman doesn't know the difference, he needs to go back to school.

Secondly, the government is getting preferred non-voting stock. So how they are going to influence what banks do with their money is a mystery to me.

Thirdly, most commentators seem to feel that the banks will not use their bailout money to extend loans because they don't trust the people they would be loaning to. This is not a government decision, and you can't tell me that banks are considering the government's interests when they make loans - because, if they did, they would be making those loans, not hoarding the money towards bonuses.

Fourthly, since an Obama administration will actively want to assist technological innovation, it seems to me his government will be pushing the banks to make loans which have some entrepreneurial risk - while trying to repress risky loans with no public dividend, like subprime mortgages and the like.

Finally, it will be a long time before the public trusts banks to do the right thing. So it will be a long time before government pulls back from banking. When it does, the goniffs will go wild once more - so I hope the government waits until I'm dead, because I don't want to go through this again.

Monday, October 27, 2008

THE PROOF

From the NYT:

A huge American-financed wastewater treatment plant in the desert city of Falluja, which United States troops assaulted twice to root out insurgents in 2004, was supposed to be the centerpiece of an effort to rebuild Iraq, a country smashed by war and neglect, and bring Western standards of sanitation.

Instead, the project, which has tripled in cost from original plans to $100 million and has fallen about three years behind schedule, has become an example of the failed and often oversold program to rebuild Iraq’s infrastructure with American dollars and skill.

The project was so poorly conceived that there is no reliable electricity to run pumps and purification tanks, and no money left to connect homes to the main sewer lines, which now run uselessly beneath Falluja’s streets, according to a report by federal investigators to be released Monday.

The report by the Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction, an independent federal office led by Stuart W. Bowen Jr., stops short of saying that officials with the United States Army Corps of Engineers, which has primary responsibility for the project, or the American Embassy’s own reconstruction bureau, the Iraq Transition Assistance Office, deliberately withheld information on the problems.

But Mr. Bowen’s investigators determined that senior officials at the embassy and the Army Corps knew of the problems for years without taking them to the American ambassador, Ryan C. Crocker, or including them in any substantial way in the State Department’s so-called 2207 reports, which are supposed to inform Congress of the status of taxpayer-financed projects in Iraq.

In fact, when Mr. Crocker learned about the problems in July, he asked the investigators to determine why he had never been informed, the report says.

The investigators found that there were systemic barriers to reporting reconstruction failures up the chain of command, possibly helping to explain why senior embassy and military officials often praise projects that later turn out to be flawed or nonfunctional.

And, as if to remove any doubt that the carefully devised public image of the project bears only a passing resemblance to what the investigators observed, the Army Corps has repeatedly promoted the Falluja project as a remarkable success in its constant stream of news releases on Iraq reconstruction.

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What precisely does this prove? The absolute corruption and incompetence of this government, obviously, and of the corporate culture of the businesses involved in it. But I think it is a warning to the rest of the world to stay away from what we build and sell. Whether or not it is truly representative of the quality of American workmanship, these projects are what the rest of the world sees. If you're a pro-business administration, the last thing you want to do is show the world how awful your work can be.

Republicans are afraid the Democrats will dig deep into what remains of the government structure after Bush, pull Republicans out by the hair and toss them in jail.

They should be. At least of the first two parts. There's a great desire for vengeance, but removal is more important.

It will be interesting to see where these Republicans find employment - what businesses usually reward incompetence. Oh, yeah, I forgot - they can all work on Wall Street.

VIDEO DATA BASES

When McCain says he has never changed his positions, it may be true - inside his head. Not in his public pronouncements.

What happened to McCain was built in to his situation. In order to get the Republican nomination, he chose to align himself with Bush, who was still adored in the party then. Maybe he had no choice - or maybe that was the same kind of bad short-sighted strategic decision that got us into Iraq with no post-battle plan.

Ten years ago you might be able to count on the public's short memory, and hope they didn't remember that you had aligned with Bush. Even if your opponent quoted you, that wasn't powerful stuff. But in the era of Youtube and other searchable video data bases, you can't get away with that. There were two people in the world who didn't understand that - John McCain and Joe Biden. They're getting the picture - literally - now.

Sunday, October 26, 2008

ONE THING OBAMA WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH

McCain won't even touch it.

Read.

A GUY WHO ACTUALLY GETS IT

Read.

EVERYBODY

Looks like every major corporation in the world - not just financial companies - is looking for a piece of the bailout. Literally. When we thought we were going to cut the influence of lobbyists, we have just given the signal to expand their numbers by about 1000% percent. Talk about redistribution of wealth. This could turn into the biggest unwarranted giveaway yet. Why is it I have the clear impression that nothing has changed in Washington or New York, and that nothing will change unless there is a trustable government agency overseeing every dollar? And assuming it's Obama, where is he going to find enough honorable, public-spirited people to do the oversight in a population so used to corruption and influence peddling?

Saturday, October 25, 2008

OBSCENE

Read this and tell me how, win or lose, McCain is going to hold his head up in civilized society.

OF COURSE, WHAT ELSE

This is precisely what I was afraid of.

And this.

Wow, what a shock. Everything that's been said has been pure noise.

Whichever candidate wins, it will be interesting to see if he actually tries to correct the situation.

DIVORCE


Fastmike got me thinking about this:

John Edwards used to say there were two Americas. There are three.

Edwards' dichotomy was between the rich and the rest of us. Leaving aside the current situation (which is difficult to predict), the rich will do just fine under either conservatives or liberals. The 3% rise in their taxes will not cause much pain. If it does, or if populist hatred for Wall Street brings them the risk of tarring and feathering, they can move to Paris or London or Switzerland. Conservative rich use ideology to get them the votes they need so they don't have to move. Liberal rich probably prefer Paris anyway. None of this will affect American jobs. Moving the corporate domicile is the most they have to do. Jobs have not been lost here because corporate headquarters moved. They've been lost as a result of corporate decision and ideology.

However, there are two of the rest of us, who generally can't move to Paris or even vacation there these days (although the dollar's getting stronger, so this might be the time to get out of the country for a while.) One has been seduced by the aforementioned corporate ideology, or religion, or race (or, in some cases, actual study and thought) to the conservative belief. One is liberal, seduced by other things.

I'm not going to get into justifications for either view. But what each side has been missing is this: the other side abhors them, is terrified of them and can't conceive of living under their rule. Before this election, Democrats really didn't understand the level of Republican disgust. Now they share it. We used to think the hate came from a fringe element. Now it's at the center of the dialog. We're two steps away from becoming a banana republic.

We thought it would happen on the basis of race, or religion, or origin. Who would have believed "e pluribus unum" would be destroyed because of ideology?

Nothing ends with this election. A new escalation of the struggle begins. Which is why I'm semi-seriously advocating for a physical, or at least political, separation.

If two people are in the process of divorcing and continue to live in the same house, resentment moves to rage and things get psychotically ugly unless they are model human beings. That is what has been happening in America. We need a split.

If conservatives want a nation living under God's rule, why shouldn't they have one? If they want a country ruled by the market, what's wrong with that? If liberals want to live in a country that honors their sense of justice, they ought to be able to have that too.

We are no different than the Sunni and Shi'a, fighting over old doctrinal differences. They've split themselves; so should we. I don't see anything wrong with, for example, the Alaskan separatist movement. Alaska is a place unto itself, and should be governed as it wishes.

When Lincoln was elected, a vote in each state controlled whether the state went Union or Confederate (democracy was different then, constitutionally, but that makes no difference to the argument.) If you lived in South Carolina and were a Unionist, you had the choice of staying and making the best of it or going North. Why can't we just do that again? And, this time, let it be?

Nobody's thinking about this right now, except Joe Biden, and he is thinking about Iraq. Maybe the Biden Plan should be applied right here. I put it out there as an obvious answer. Until each American faction can tolerate the other, it's the only answer, it seems to me. Other than civil war. Which is not out of the question.

Friday, October 24, 2008

LIKE I SAID


http://view.break.com/592648 - Watch more free videos

HERE, TOO

Looks like Tzipi Livni can't form a government without Shas, the ultra-Orthodox party which insists she promise she will not negotiate over East Jerusalem. She doesn't want to do that,

If she can't form a government, she'll have to hold elections which will probably produce a Likud victory. That means more of the same hatred and distrust.

And this is what I'm afraid we are facing here, too.

PERFECTLY FREE

This is the text of Michelle Bachmann's apologia for her McCarthyite comments on Chris Matthews:

"Once again, our nation is at a crossroads and it's a time for choosing. We could embrace government as the answer to our problems or we can choose freedom and liberty. I may not always get my words right but I know that my heart is right because my heart is for you, for your children and for the blessings of liberty to remain for our great country."

So, for her, government is the antithesis of freedom and liberty. I figure this must be an anti-Bush/Cheney statement, like McCain's latest. But to believe that all American governments are the antithesis of freedom and liberty? Even the Congress, in which she sits? Then what in the hell is she doing there?

You know where she'd be happy? On the Northwest Frontier of Pakistan. No government over there. She'd be perfectly free.

I hope Minnesota sends her there.

WHAT TO DO?

MSNBC is dicking around with Palin's clothes and McCain's brother's 911 call while McCain launches a deadly ad, using Joe Biden's voice, at Obama's worst deficiency in the public view. This ad will play through the election, and it will hurt - bad.

538 says Strategic Vision has McCain narrowly ahead in both Florida and Ohio, and gaining ground in Pennslyvania. Strategic Vision is a Republican polling firm, and indeed has had a 2-3 point Republican lean this cycle, but nevertheless, these represent significant improvements for McCain in all three states from Strategic Vision's last set of polling. Rasmussen, meanwhile, has him narrowly ahead in North Carolina -- actually the first North Carolina poll that he's led in some time -- and closing his difference with Obama in New Hampshire, where his taxation message may be selling well.

I don't think it's the taxes.

Does it turn out that it's actually Obama who made the VP mistake? What am I going to do if I have to blame Biden for Obama's defeat?

What I'm going to do is what I'm already doing: praying for a good Democratic majority in Congress. But I'll tell you, without a new source of hope in our politics and our economy, the only sane answer seems to be: tune in, turn on, drop out.

THE REPUBLICAN AVATAR

The Republican campaign in a nutshell, from Kos:

Police sources tell KDKA that a campaign worker has now confessed to making up a story that a mugger attacked her and cut the letter "B" in her face after seeing her McCain bumper sticker [...]

Investigators did say that they received photos from the ATM machine and "the photographs were verified as not being the victim making the transaction."

This afternoon, a Pittsburgh police commander told KDKA Investigator Marty Griffin that Todd confessed to making up the story.

The commander added that Todd will face charges; but police have not commented on what those charges will be.

RISKY

Newt Gingrich says the SNL parody of Palin is slander. So what?

Nearly everything out of the mouths of Fox, conservative talk show hosts and the McCain campaign is slander. Obama consorts with terrorists? Is not an American citizen? Is a Muslim? It's all slander. Once again, the one who commits the crime accuses the victim of it. Standard Republican psychotic behavior (and that's slander, too - unless it's true.)

Speaking of psychotic, since we're into slander today, let's talk about John McCain. No one - John McCain nor anyone else - could come out of McCain's alleged Vietnam experiences without serious mental illness. If he is not mentally ill, then his captivity could not be as bad as he has described it. I accept his story as true. Add to that the shame that a prisoner must feel at allowing himself to become a prisoner (particularly someone like McCain who comes from a prominent military family and has to have felt like an utter failure), and you have to assume that there is an unbalanced aspect to McCain. There are other aspects of that experience that I think I see in McCain: a fierce need to be seen as honorable, as a result of the aforementioned shame; a sense of entitlement as recompense for suffering (nobody in the world doesn't feel that), and a perception of his own superiority which masks (as it commonly does) feelings of inferiority. McCain feels entitled to make his own rules. I think he believes he is telling the truth when he is lying. He made the astonishing statement the other day that he has never changed his position on any political issue - despite miles of tape available to prove otherwise. I think he believed what he said. Which means McCain lives in an alternative reality. And I think this campaign may be driving him further into it.

Plenty of Vietnam vets keep their dysfunction under control. But there is often a moment when they flip out. I can't think of anything more likely to flip one out than what McCain will meet as president. I understand why Obama has said none of this - other than repeating the word "erratic," which most people seem to take as a code word for "old" but almost certainly is not that. A good biography of McCain might help in understanding him - but there doesn't seem to be one looking into this topic.

But talk about voting for risky.

JOE THE PLUMBER NATION

Obama wants to spread the wealth? Through taxation?

The fuss McCain is making about this - and the response among his followers - proves that Reagan has done lasting, perhaps permanent, damage to America.

The only raise in taxes Obama has talked about is on those making over $250,000. Yet people making well under that are incensed, despite the fact that these increased taxes will benefit them. It's not just a matter of not understand Obama's proposal. These people are ideologically opposed to taxation.

No taxes, no government. Of course, that was Reagan's goal - a return to anarchy, actually. But not dangerous anarchy among the less than wealthy - to prevent that, Reagan's ideology allowed enough taxes to pay for military and police.

No taxes, no Social Security, no Medicare, no government bailout of the banks. No social order. No highways, fire department, soccer fields for soccer moms. Don't want those? Well, a lot of us do.

Taxes are socialism? Strangest definition of the word I've ever heard. If you want to choose what you'll pay for, you don't want to live in a democracy. Rich people can buy their own islands. Where's Joe the Plumber going to go? Nowhere - he's going to stay right here and make our lives miserable.

You're not opposed to taxes, you just want the other guy to pay them? Okay, then which other guy? Since you subscribe to Republicanism, it can't be rich people. Who, then? Your neighbors? That guy at work you don't like?

These people's understanding of the basics of the American system is so dysfunctional they probably should not be allowed to vote. I can understand a rich guy's advocating a flat tax - but the average guy? My God. Does he understand that the things he wants and uses have to be paid for? Well, no, probably. That's what credit cards are for. Or loans from China.

You know, I finally get why Joe the Plumber wants guns. Guns are the armed forces of Joe the Plumber Nation. Our population is crammed with potential Unabombers who want nothing more than to be left entirely alone.

THANKS, JOE

From what I can see, McCain has made a very heavy buy in Florida for an ad attacking Obama using Biden's words.

This issue is qualitatively different from the other nonsense Republicans have been pushing. It is not on some peripheral issue like Ayers or Wright. It goes to the heart of Obama's fitness to be president. It's a well-done ad, and I think it will resonate. I think it could kill Obama in Florida.

Thanks, Joe.

Thursday, October 23, 2008

INCORRIGIBLE

After "admitting" that his belief that markets would self-regulate was wrong - a conclusion reached at the dawn of history by anyone trading anything more than bubblegum cards - Greenspan said the following, when asked what regulatory changes he would recommend:

"Whatever regulatory changes are made, they will pale in comparison to the change already evident in today's markets. Those markets for an indefinite future will be far more restrained than would any currently contemplated new regulatory regime."

I.e., he believes the markets are now self-regulating!

The man cannot get his head out of his ... ideology. He is an incorrigible manipulator, a liar of titanic proportions and Talmudic skills. Speaking of which, his face today looked very familiar - if you remember the propaganda of a certain European regime. And that's what I despise him for most: giving certain bastards cause to believe things about us all.

JUNKYARD DOGS

Republican strategist Brad Blakeman, responding to a question about how John McCain could square his opposition to wasteful spending with the RNC shelling out over $150,000 on clothes and accessories for Sarah Palin, said that the real outrage is Barack Obama "taking a 767 campaign plane to go visit Grandma."

Yeah, he should fly United and hang around the airport for hours like the rest of us, him and his press corp and his staff.

What fascinates me is that the Republicans are throwing out so many new arguments a day. They must figure each one grabs three voters, so if they can throw out 50,000,000 of them before November 4th, they can win the election.

They don't have a message. They so missed their chance. They absolutely left the economy to Obama. They have put out minimal shreds of any plan to deal with it. But attack? Man, give them one more bone to gnaw.

That fascinates me, too. For forty years, since Nixon, Republicans have aggregated Rottweiler mentalities around a central strategic brain. This time, though, the brain is gone - and all they have is a bunch of yapping junkyard dogs picking up everything they see and chewing on it.

This has to be the worst campaign we have ever seen. Which will make it so tragic if it wins.

ARROGANT

After previously backing the term limits law and even vetoing a 2002 bill to amend it, saying it was an attempt by politicians to change the rules for personal gain, Mayor Michael Bloomberg persuaded the New York City Council to amend the term-limits law Thursday so that the billionaire independent can run for re-election next year. By a 29-22 vote, the council agreed to allow officeholders three consecutive four-year terms.

This message - nobody can do it but me - seems an odd one to put out in the present mood. People want to see arrogant New York bigshots brought down. If he wasn't already, Bloomberg is now an arrogant New York bigshot. But New York, whose employment opportunities recently have primarily been in finance, is a place unto itself these days. They don't think like anywhere else - at least not anywhere else in the USA. They definitely do not believe rules apply to them. They are about to find out otherwise.

If I lived in New York, I'd work for anyone to beat Bloomberg next year. In the meantime, I hope - since he's such a genius - he can find jobs for all those out of work finance guys. New York always used to be big on welfare (until the current thieves took the city over). I guess it's going to be again.

Oh, by the way - any bets on whether when his third term is through Bloomberg will get the City Council to give him a fourth? Yep, he's the Roosevelt of Manhattan. But if he's so smart, why didn't he stop his city from imploding?

PATTYCAKE

Brian Williams needs to take some Katie Couric lessons.

When, in his interview with McCain and Palin, McCain asserted that Obama has not been forthcoming about his relationship with Ayers, did Brian ask him what Obama has not said? No.

When Palin was asked if she was a feminist and said she didn't believe in labels, did Brian ask how come she was so busy labeling Obama? No.

When McCain said the elite live in Washington and New York, did Brian ask him, considering all his houses, cars and cash, whether he wasn't part of the elite? No.

This was not an interview. It was pattycake.

BUT NO

Interesting story on the local news:

Apparently some maleficent lawyer has filed a suit against Obama seeking to disqualify him from the presidency on the grounds that he wasn't born in the US.

Leaving aside the facts of the matter, the story said the lawyer had filed a request for admissions which Obama hadn't answered, and that he intended to move for summary judgment.

I doubt there was a request for admissions this early in a case. Probably what they were talking about were the allegations of the complaint, which the defendant must admit or deny. But Obama has filed a motion to dismiss the suit - and while a motion to dismiss is pending, the defendant has no obligation to answer anything. So the story is more Republican horseshit.

You'd think the station would have asked a lawyer a few questions before running this story. But no.

I have come to the conclusion that the reason the media is so bad, besides the fact that it's loaded up with ideologues, is that smart people aren't going into the media business these days. They're all on Wall Street, one way or another. It's like the problem with teachers - dumb teachers make dumb students. Dumb journalists make dumb citizens. Ergo. Et cetera.

CAPSULIZED

At this point, it becomes simple to capsulize McCain.

He has no positive ideas or proposals. You have no idea of what he would do as president. All you know is what he says he would not do. He runs entirely on fear of the other and his personal conviction that he should be president and that he "knows" how to do and fix thus and such - without giving us any idea of what he "knows" or how he "knows" it. His campaign has come down to this: don't turn the country over to the enemy. I.e., anything - even McCain - would be better than that.

The last campaign I remember which was this empty was Nixon's. Or Dole's, which, come to think of it, was so empty that I don't remember it. Reagan, Carter, Clinton, both Bushes all had overarching messages. McCain's message is "me." I hope it doesn't work.

A LITTLE LATE, YOU ASSHOLE

Greenspan. The only thing anyone should want to hear from him is when he's going to report to Federal prison to start serving his term.

Wednesday, October 22, 2008

TIRED

If you have a lot of money, it's perfectly understandable that you'd vote for McCain. If, for you, Israel is the dominant issue, again I understand.

If you're not one of those, then you're probably voting for McCain because you've bought into the crap the Republicans have been handing out lately - Obama's a Muslim, a socialist, a communist, un-American, anti-American.

This election will measure whether America is smart enough and educated enough to survive in the 21st century.

What I really hope is that, if Obama wins, some moderate people take over the Republican party so we don't continue to have to live with utter nonsense. But I see no such moderates anywhere - at least none who appear to have the guts to try such a thing.

No matter what the outcome, unfortunately, some substantial portion of the American public will prove themselves unable to govern themselves. And I am really tired of hearing from them.

A SECRET

Here's a big secret:

Obama actually dances as well as most gay black guys. In his public appearances, he dances like a white guy at a Bar Mitzvah because he doesn't want to look like most gay black guys.

ANARCHY

Tonight on Matthews a Las Vegas talk show host said she was opposed to progressive taxation. Actually, she went further: she said she didn't want her money taken from her and given to someone else. Since the whole idea of taxation is to compel people to pay for services they may not personally use, she clearly opposes taxation per se.

What people like her are saying is that they want to choose the polity they will take some responsibility for. It could be a polity of one, or a polity of the family, or the neighborhood, or the church group, or whatever. Beyond that, they feel no need to acknowledge anyone else. So if it's the church group, they can donate, but they don't want to be taxed for the benefit of any wider polity.

Think what you may about progressive taxation, what she was expressing was anarchy. She divides the nation into infinite numbers of little groups, or taking it to the ultimate, into 300,000,000 nations. And then they talk about being pro-American.

I wish somebody would point this out.

HIDIN' BIDEN

Democrats crow about Republicans having to hide Sarah Palin from the press. Looks to me like Biden's the one who needs to be hidden.

Biden was right, of course. Obama will be tested. So will McCain - McCain's statement that "they know me," and therefore won't test him, can only be interpreted to mean if "they" push him he will kill them. McCain's confidence, as he constantly asserts, that "I know" everything, is an invitation to testing. And failure, probably.

But did Biden have to say it? One of the requirements of the presidency is to watch what you say and not shoot from the hip. As much as Biden knows - which is a hell of a lot - he can still do a lot of damage as president if he talks before he thinks.

Palin at least has the sense to stick to talking points - and she's getting better at handling interviewers. Biden? I'm sure even he doesn't know what he's going to say next - and that's an incurable condition, I'm afraid, judging from what I'm seeing.

I'd whack on that, if I were Republican, any time anyone questions Sarah Palin's credentials.

BOB CESCA ON HUFFINGTON POST

Bob Cesca
Posted October 22, 2008 | 04:28 PM (EST)

The End of 'Larry the Cable Guy Politics'

Larry the Cable Guy isn't, you know, an actual cable guy. The reality is that he's not a blue collar redneck either. The hooplehead accent is fake, and his name isn't Larry. He's just a normal stand-up comic named Dan Whitney who, before the ascension of George W. Bush and redneck chic in America, spoke in a non-specific American accent and wore non-redneck clothing.

But a lot of people believe Larry is genuine. Why wouldn't they? When he's in a movie, he's credited as "Larry the Cable Guy," and, in some sort of freaky Mark Wahlberg playing Eddie Adams playing Dirk Diggler playing Brock Landers meta-performance, Dan Whitney actually plays Larry the Cable Guy playing various movie character roles. For example, in Witless Protection, Dan Whitney plays Larry the Cable Guy playing Deputy Larry Stalder. Now sure, he's made a nice career for himself and I don't mean to begrudge him for his success, but it's all pretty creepy, no?

Fortunately for America, Larry or Dan or whoever isn't running for president. At least, not this time.

Be it Larry the Cable Guy or his Ohio cousin, Joe the Plumber, or their political and spiritual leader, Bushie the Commander Guy, or their newly discovered co-star Sarah the Hockey Mom, it should be obvious to anyone watching that the Republicans have been engaging in a seemingly endless game of dress up, and pretending to be something they're clearly not.

Larry the Cable Guy Politics.

As we've all observed today with the news of Sarah Palin's $150,000 wardrobe -- purchased, I hasten to underscore, from stores based in the "anti-American" areas of the nation -- the Republican "Joe Sixpack" flimflam appears to be crashing and burning faster than McCain's poll numbers.

For the last eight years, we've observed in shocked horror as President Bush -- this elite child of limitless family wealth -- this pampered, bubble-boy cheerleader -- marched around the world stage pretending to be some kind of shit-kicking cowpoke. His so-called Texas ranch, a strategically-timed purchase just prior to the launch of his 2000 presidential campaign, isn't any more authentically "cowboy" than the invisible six-shooters he pretends to wear on his gigantic belt, making his arms dangle outwards in some sort of ridiculous Yosemite Sam "Draw!" pose. The Crawford ranch is, in fact, a multi-million-dollar estate on which he once shared a 16 mile bike ride with Lance Armstrong without ever leaving the boundaries of his property.

Meanwhile, most of us own houses that cost less than two months worth of Sarah Palin outfits. Lee Stranahan posted another spot-on video today in which he notes that $150,000 is enough to buy 50 snowmachines, 2,500 hockey sticks and over 20,000 six-packs. It's more money, Lee reports, than the average American family spends on clothes over a span of 80 years.

This only serves to further amplify the truth that John McCain and the neocons selected Sarah Palin purely for superficial reasons. To play a part. To satisfy a perceived optics gap. And now McCain and the Republicans are somehow outraged when their superficiality is finally revealed to the public? That's hilarious, especially considering how, over and over and over again, these very same white Republican men have gone around with very televised and very obvious (and, in the case of Limbaugh, very chemically induced) pants tents whenever Palin winks and shrieks out a phony, "You betcha!" Rich Lowery, I'm looking at you.

Then there's Senator McCain himself who has repeatedly scammed American voters by accusing Senator Obama of being an elitist -- in this case, the "elitist" being the minority son of a single mother who worked his way through school and routinely re-soles his shoes rather than buying new ones.

In the same cackling breath, Senator McCain pretends to understand the economic hardships of the dwindling American middle class while obnoxiously hissing, "Who is the real Barack Obama?" At this point, I imagine voters are seriously wondering who the hell John McCain really is. Cliff Schecter, author of The Real McCain, helped me answer this question earlier today:

The McCains are real salt of the Earth folks. Twelve cars, eleven houses, 520-buck loafers, Cindy McCain's 300k RNC outfit especially made to pal around with domestic financial terrorists... you know average American kinda stuff.
Toss in Senator McCain's $8,500-a-month Hollywood makeup artist, and the fake "man of the people" maverick scam totally disintegrates. Underneath we find a spasmodic, filthy rich, Mr. Magoo -- a typical Bush Republican who embraces the same kind of divisive ratfuckery we've endured for too many years from the likes of Karl Rove, Lee Atwater, Richard Nixon (McCain has shamefully resurrected the Southern Strategy) and, most disturbingly, the politics of Joe McCarthy.

Yet last night, there was a convergence of news that, to me, helped to illustrate -- if not outright signal --an end to the dominance of this kind of chicanery.

There was Republican Congressman Robin Hayes who blurted out another nearsighted Republican lie about how liberals hate America. He immediately denied saying any such thing -- that is, until reporters discovered actual recordings of the quote. Duh. Anyway, you'll notice that Hayes used the Larry the Cable Guy catchphrase "git 'er done!" and its apparent derivation "got 'er did!" Yep. A member of your United States Congress. At the same time, news was breaking about Palin's ludicrous wardrobe bill. And then, on top of all of that, the results of the latest NBC News / Wall Street Journal poll showing the McCain campaign falling desperately behind in just about every polling category. Among other indicators, Sarah Palin, it turns out, is even less popular than George W. Bush.

In a broad-stroke sense, it felt as if Americans were finally beginning to vocally reject this decade of "git 'er done" sophistry and fallacious Republican optics. It felt really damn good.

Now, granted, this election is far from over and the McCain-Palin campaign could still eek out a victory (don't take anything for granted!), but the light at the end of this dark ride is growing increasingly brighter by the day. Given the McCarthy-meets-Nixon tactics of the last week or two, it's not a moment too soon. The end of Larry the Cable Guy Politics as we know it -- this transparent redneck hustle the Republicans have injected into our lives every day -- appears to be receding into history.

We can only hope that in its place will emerge a rebirth of American intelligence, pragmatism, thoughtfulness and wisdom. After too many years of painted-on knee-jerk superficiality -- be it in the White House or talk radio or on the FOX News Channel (where blonde is the new smart) -- our national condition is starving for a return to reason and reality.

BobCesca.com -- Go!

Tuesday, October 21, 2008

MORONIC

Pretty amazing, isn't it, that Americans oppose "redistributing the wealth" even when it means redistributing it to them. This is not ignorant. This is moronic. Can we think of any of the top rank of Republicans who have been opposed to the huge redistribution of wealth in their direction post Reagan? The American idea is to educate people, not use their ignorance against them.

Sunday, October 19, 2008

AND SO IT BEGINS

What country is this? I don't recognize it.

A PENCHANT FOR PALINS

Read.


Yes, Virginia, we're in a post-racial society. Oh ... anybody notice the Jewish star on Obama's head?

EXPLANATIONS

Joe Sixpack used to think Obama was a liberal. He didn't know what a "liberal" was - but it was explained to him that a liberal is someone who wants big government, and to tax, and to spend. He isn't sure why big government is bad - just that Reagan said it would waste his money. He doesn't think the government should take any money from him - it should pay for the military with someone else's money. He certainly doesn't want his money to go to helping some other person. If he wanted to help somebody else, he'd give money to homeless people. The fact that the government is, right now, the only thing standing between him and absolute disaster has not sunk in - and probably never will.

Now Joe is calling Obama a socialist. He doesn't know what a "socialist" is - but McCain explains to him that a socialist is someone who wants to spread the wealth. Joe doesn't want to spread his wealth - although he wouldn't mind if someone else's was spread to him. And goddamn the neighbor who ran out on his mortgage, ruining Joe's property values. That guy ought to be shot.

Joe wants his highways and his nuclear weapons for free. But if it came down to him paying for them, he'd give them up.

Joe is a rock. He is an island. Self-sufficient. Alone. More ignorant than a man with an opinion has a right to be.

Joe has begun to call Obama a communist. He doesn't know what a "communist" is - but McCain will explain it to him.

THE SILVER LINING

A brilliant example of balanced reporting (I have seen this done fifty times on various local newses):

There's a silver lining to the economic crash. Gasoline prices are dropping.

Save a dollar, lose your job. There's equivalence for you.

Am I imagining it, or did you used to need a brain to do TV news?

PAKISTAN

From what I read, the economic collapse is wreaking havoc in Pakistan - destabilizing the secular government at its very beginning.

And so it may be that the bastards who brought America low may have put her in nuclear danger, too.

SPECIAL PLACE IN HELL

There's been plenty of talk about the government entities whose failures contributed to the economic meltdown. Except this one: local government.

If the meltdown was driven by sub-prime loans, it was overbuilding that caused them. It was the rampant availability of new, "better" homes that tempted buyers, and it was overbuilding that made so many new units available that developers colluded with banks to provide the bad mortgages used to buy them. And colluded with local governments to ignore the best interests of their constituents and allow things to get out of hand.

Any local government which couldn't foresee the result of overbuilding should be removed from office. And any local government which did foresee it and did nothing about it should be sent to a special place in Hell where, for the rest of eternity, they must try to explain to the rest of us why they fucked us over.

PRONOUNCE IT GOOD

Corporate, political and personal lying and chicanery to subvert the public interest to the profit of the liar is not going to stop with an election - even if the election expresses the public will that such behavior stop. Only a new generation can do that - and it will likely have to be in the face of their own parents' behavior. Is it impossible to create real family values - of honesty, truth, and social responsibility? Probably. But maybe not.

We almost did it once before - in the '60's. We let ourselves be beaten down and ultimately coopted by fancy foodie dinners and Blahnik shoes - showing that all but the most determined revolutionaries can be slaves to fashion. (Wasn't it Cleaver who invented pants and voted for Reagan?) We might have held onto the Beatles - which are even now being used to sell us stuff - but we haven't held on to the Freedom Riders.

I am embarrassed by my generation - but I hope a new one somewhere down the line will take a look at what was done and pronounce it good. It will not happen for a while - we now have an entire generation of corporate kinder who will never believe they owe anyone else anything. But I still hope.

INCONSEQUENTIAL JERK-OFF

Joe the Plumber is a consequence of reality TV. Reality TV is a consequence of politicians from Reagan forward hauling up inconsequential jerk-offs and declaring them the real American heroes. If inconsequential jerk-offs were the real American heroes, we wouldn't know about it because there wouldn't be a TV to tell us about it. We'd still be writing letters that would take three weeks to arrive.

It's time for inconsequential jerk-offs to realize that there are people who are smarter than they are and make contributions to society which even benefit inconsequential jerk-offs. (I think inconsequential jerk-offs used to understand this, in some dim prior age - and also understood that if there were significant contributions they had to make, they could make them if they worked at them, improving their status to consequential - jerk-off or not.) And that it's not a good idea to elect people like them.

It's time for the media and politicians to stop elevating inconsequential jerk-offs and pandering to people who believe the world should be run by inconsequential jerk-offs because, in the natural order of things, they "gut" the truth.

HOW MANY ARE THERE?

Pace Adam Smith, but in this election people will not be voting in their own self-interest, or even based on their actual situation. Their votes will depend on what kind of people they are.

Polls are encouraging the belief that we will act as rational adults. It may be that the media focus on Joe the Plumber is simply fascination with the instant creation of a new celebrity, or pandering to a minority of less than deep thinkers. But in 2004 more of us did not act as rational adults, and in 2000 the ratio between rational/irrational was close enough to allow the election to be manipulated. We'll see what happens this time. I wish it was over already.

Rational Republicans have opted for adult behavior - Powell, Will, etc. They can live with rational Democrats, and vice versa. The real question is whether the rational can live with the irrational.

So far the two seem to be interacting with equanimity outside of politics. Somebody may hate what you believe, but not hate you - as opposed to the '60's, for example, when there was violence on both sides and hatred of views translated automatically to personal animus. I wonder, though, if that will continue. Judging from the yelling of "communists!" etc. from a Palin crowd to Obama supporters outside a Palin rally (I'm looking for the very disturbing video), there are some who seem about ready to cross that line. The question, which will be answered soon, is how many of them there are.

PALIN ON SNL

Interesting.

They gave her nothing to do except sit there (or stand there) while they made fun of her.

The story was that as of Friday there was no script for her appearance. There was no script for her appearance on Saturday night, either. Clearly SNL was conflicted - her appearance was good for ratings, so they wanted her on, but they didn't want to help her, either.

Actually, though, I think they did help her. She was poised in the midst of the nothingness they surrounded her with. She actually behaved like an adult.

I think she's got a great future on TV. The camera loves her, and she works it well. Fox News will be calling, if she loses.

Saturday, October 18, 2008

PREFERENCES

In 17 days you'll know whether you live in Barack Obama's America or Joe the Plumber's. In the world as the world knows it, or in the world of Monday Night Football.

Any preferences?

LIKE I DO

I think I can explain (to myself, anyway) why Republicans have engaged in such an amoral, ends-justify-the-means campaign.

In part it's because they don't want to give up power. In part because an Obama win will be what they see as an interruption of their forty year campaign to rule the world. In part because their egos cannot stand defeat (think Clinton impeachment). In part because they really believe liberals are evil in the absolute sense, and what they're about to see is the equivalent of Albert Einstein defeating Hitler in the 1936 German election. Reason over mythology - unacceptable. (In many ways, I think, the Republicans have tried - as did the Nazis, through demonizing liberals as the Nazis demonized the Jews - to bring the country to the point where such a defeat is impossible. No doubt they're very angry that they haven't finished the job.)

But it's also, I think, because they are incapable of understanding what progressivism and pragmatism are, and where they are coming from. They simply cannot comprehend what is happening. They have no real knowledge of the prior progressive era - or of any anything earlier than Reaganism. They don't know about cycles and yin/yang - their ideology blocks that knowledge. And they are terrified of what they can't fathom.

They don't really believe Obama is a Muslim. But they do believe he is something alien. And they believe he hates them. Like I do.

THE WRONG DIRECTION

Notwithstanding all of the McCain campaign's pathological vituperation of recent weeks, what disturbs me most is the willingness of Secret Service agents to prevent reporters at Palin rallies from talking to crowd members. This is hardly what the Secret Service is for.

It's being said that Palin has commanded the SS to serve her political purposes. But it's just as likely that they're doing so willingly.

I do not trust any individual or institution which has had prolonged exposure to the virus that is the Bush administration. Which is why, as I've already said, Obama needs to vet his SS detail carefully. We wouldn't want somebody to be looking in the wrong direction on purpose ...

Thursday, October 16, 2008

MARKETIZED THINKING

Stop to think about it:

We seem to be about to get rid of a corrupt, mean-spirited, arrogant, militaristic government. And the public seems to be adjusting its attitude in major ways. Much of the bullshit political theology we've been fed since 1994 seems to have lost its attraction. We may be putting people in charge who know how to build for the future for everyone's benefit, across the world. This is very, very good.

Too bad the market doesn't understand that what it is reacting to are the consequences of those 14 years. Too bad it doesn't get that we may be seeing the death of nihilism. Too bad it doesn't understand that things are already better.

But markets are short-sighted and think short-term. And it occurs to me that the problem with America is that that marketized thinking has spilled over into everything.

It's time for a positive attitude.

JOE THE PLUMBER

The worst of this mess for people in the stock market is watching the Dow's huge swings. I'm quite sure the national panic level would ease if the market was more consistent. Since I'm positive the swings are caused by institutional computer trading, why not ban those dangerous toys for now?

Also - I saw a clip of Tom Harkin suggesting that newfangled financial instruments be made illegal. That was the first and last I heard of it. It's a great idea, as I've said before. Whoever is overseeing the economy should have the authority to ban any financial instrument which it has not reviewed, considered and evaluated before its use.

And Joe the Plumber needs to be on the oversight board.

Just kidding on that last one, ok?

GOOD

Iraq and the United States have finally agreed on a security pact which would mean that US forces would withdraw from Iraq by 2011, American and Iraqi officials said yesterday.

This should guarantee relative quiet in Iraq until late 2010. It will give a new administration time to reconceive American policy in the Middle East, particularly with regard to Iran. There should, then, be one less crisis to be met immediately after the swearing in.

PANGLOSS HERE

What I'm hoping is that Obama's election lifts the miasma which has descended over the world, hope returns and a new glittering age begins: not an age of bling like the one we have just lived through, but an age in which intelligence shines and good will becomes endemic. Another Camelot, in other words - only, this time, worldwide.

Speaking of which - it is inevitable, given the mental state of the world, that someone is going to take a shot at Obama. I hope he picks his Secret Service detail wisely. They've probably gotten lazy with their easy detail in the Bush years, since threats to presidents don't often come from the left.

DESTROYED

I thought McCain won the first two debates. Tonight I thought Obama destroyed him.

My favorite part: McCain fell into Obama's trap when he brought up Ayers (Obama had dared him to do it), giving Obama the chance - before the largest audience he's had on this issue - to explain quite simply what Ayers was about. And that should be the end of the Ayers issue.

But that's what happens when your campaign is based on a lie. Give the other guy the audience for the truth, and you collapse. It's amazing to me McCain and his people didn't realize this. It's also amazing to me that McCain's campaign is totally focused on his base - the discussion on abortion tonight proved that - when his base is about 20% of the electorate. That is how fundamentally dumb the McCain campaign is. Rove must be chuckling, out there in the ether.

There is nothing McCain can do to turn this around. The only thing that could turn it around is events on the ground - a terrorist attack, something in the economy which I can't foresee .. and even if that happens, at this point McCain's attack on Obama's readiness will no longer work.

Wednesday, October 15, 2008

WITH FRIENDS LIKE THESE ...

Read.

STILL DANGEROUS FROM BEYOND THE GRAVE

Read.

Tuesday, October 14, 2008

BAND-AIDS

These are McCain's economic fixes, according to his adviser, Douglas Holtz-Eakin:

Mr. McCain would propose that people 59 years and older who withdraw money from IRAs or 401k retirement plans in 2009 and 2010 pay a tax rate of 10 per cent on the money rather than their higher normal tax rates. The plan would cost $36 billion, based on McCain campaign internal estimates, Mr. Holtz-Eakin said.

In addition, Mr. McCain is to propose three other new measures: a 50 per cent reduction in the capital gains tax on stock profits, from the current 15 per cent to 7.5 per cent, for a period of two years, at an estimated cost of $10 billion; an acceleration in the tax write-off for stock losses, allowing Americans to deduct $15,000 in losses a year for the tax years 2008 and 2009 (current rules allow deductions for up to $3,000 in losses), and a suspension on the tax on unemployment insurance benefits in 2008 and 2009.

I don't see anything wrong with them (with the possible exception of the cut in capital gains tax across the board - I find it hard to believe that would only cost $10 billion, and I would rather see it extended only to people earning less than $500,000 per year. And I don't really know what it would accomplish).

But the plan's a bandaid - cute election promises but nothing going to the core(s) of the problem(s).

I think Obama should accept them, and go on from there.

Monday, October 13, 2008

HE GETS IT - I HOPE

Obama intends to bolster his economic credentials by making a major address spelling out his economic rescue plan to kick off the campaign week.

That's the right idea - assuming the plan makes sense. We'll see.

Sunday, October 12, 2008

WIDE RANGE OF MINDS

Everybody's throwing money at the problem - most of it money we don't have. Where the hell is a country which is $5 trillion in debt going to get money to do what's being proposed? If they print money, inflation goes through the roof. There is no safe way out of this that requires spending.

Why is this happening? Because we have no president. Everyone's running around ad hoc, people are acting on half-baked ideas because they just might work fast enough to keep the market from sliding to oblivion. What's needed is not rushed weekend meetings. What's needed is a convocation of a wide range of minds to sit down for a month, or whatever it takes, with a president - out of Washington, preferably - and make sure we understand what the problem is and come up with the best possible ways to solve it. That will never happen under Bush.

My suggestion to whoever wins is that they delegate the transition to lesser aides, convoke this convocation the day after the election and make damn sure they get it right.

WHERE TO LIVE

What states could you not live in comfortably if you were a progressive?

Texas, Tennessee, Arizona, Alabama, South Carolina, Oklahoma, Nebraska, Utah, Idaho, South Dakota, Wyoming. These are the states polling under 40% for Obama.

SHORTHAND

Some time ago I wrote that Obama should not run against McCain as the promise of another four years of Bush. I was wrong about that, but not for the obvious reasons.

McCain isn't Bush. But he is a Republican, and he will do what Republicans do. For example, on the economy, Bush is not entirely to blame for what has happened. (In fact, I think he isn't to blame at all, because aside from the spending on the Iraq war, I don't think he has the intellectual capacity to have conceived of any of the things that brought us to this pass.) The process started with Nixon and went through Reagan, Gingrich, Gramm, Delay, etc. The Republicans are the real target, not Bush.

But in order to make that argument, voters would have to have a political memory which they don't - and would have to overcome years of belief in Reagan's brilliance.

So "Bush" is the right shorthand for Republican.

SIMPLE QUESTIONS

Simple people have to be asked simple questions.

When a McCain supporter calls Obama a "communist," someone should ask him what a communist is. If he calls Obama a "terrorist," he needs to be asked what he means. What you will find - as Katie Couric did when she had the effrontery to ask Palin follow-up questions after Palin's obfuscation - is that he has no idea what he means.

Not that you'll have any impact on the guy or his thoughts. But maybe someone watching the process will have the intellectual fortitude to question knee-jerk assumptions like that. If not, at least you'll have the satisfaction of proving to some abstraction of mind - God? - that it helps to know what you're talking about.

SO BE IT

I got out of the market after Friday's upswing. Why? I think this market's bottom is at 8000. I think it's very possible we could see huge gains next week. So why get out?

Because I'm guessing. For the average investor - excluding people who have enough capital to actually move the market - the market is nothing but a gambling casino, and what you are betting on is the public mood and what people you don't know anything about who have a lot of money are going to try to pull. (And if there is a surge, it will be just as irrational as last week's crash.) That's no way to run your life. So if the market surges, so be it.

TROOPERGATE

I still think Troopergate is a non-starter in this election. As far as I know, the Democrats have not mentioned it. But the McCain campaign could still turn it into a liability.

First, McCain campaign spokeswoman Meg Stapleton dismissed the report as the product of "a partisan-led inquiry run by Obama supporters." Who she's talking about isn't clear. What is clear is that the investigation was begun by a Republican legislature. And I haven't heard anyone say that the Alaska courts which insisted that the investigation proceed were Democratic. There have been numerous propaganda tricks run by the McCain team. This is one of the most obvious - if there is any truth at all to it, it's a tiny kernal - and the propaganda the average guy can see through is the kind that hurts the people who put it out.

Second, to end-run the legislative process, Palin filed an ethics complaint against herself with the State Personnel Board, arguing that it alone was capable of conducting a fair, nonpartisan inquiry. Republicans appointed that board, including Palin. Then the board hired an aggressive Anchorage trial lawyer, Timothy Petumenos, as an independent counsel. Petumenos is a Democrat who contributed to Palin's 2006 opponent for governor.

The message? Alaskan politicians don't like Palin much. That message might get through to the public, too.

But still - if the Democrats push Troopergate, they counter their own effort to keep the focus on the economy. So I think Troopergate will not mean much except to people who are actually looking at Palin critically.

Saturday, October 11, 2008

PLEASE

The US and India have signed an agreement allowing American businesses to sell nuclear fuel, technology and reactors to India - and I am utterly baffled.

Certainly the agreement will benefit certain American businesses - but what about the American public interest?

This I suspect is a product of Cold War thinking - which would explain why Condoleeza Rice has championed it. They want to build a relationship with India to counter the growing power of China and the threat of Pakistan. But why couldn't they do that by creating some partnership which was less threatening to India's neighbors? Certainly India needs nuclear power to raise itself up - but won't the extra fuel be diverted to nuclear weapons?

I think it's really great of Bush - and Congress has approved this! - to disrupt what has been a long-term workable balance of power and piss off the Chinese - whom we need desperately now - and the Pakistanis, who we need for obvious reasons.

People like Rice never realize the consequences of what they do which extend out longer than three or four weeks. Somebody should tell these damn fools please to leave these decisions to a real president - the next one, whoever he is.

Friday, October 10, 2008

A COUPLE OF POINTS

The fact that Bush's approval rating continues to sink is of no significance, since both McCain and Obama have been pounding on him.

Troopergate is irrelevant. By this time, most people know who they're going to vote for, and those who don't are pretty hopeless. I bet Obama doesn't even use it. What's interesting, though, is that Republican legislators in Alaska voted unanimously to release the report. Either they are an honorable bunch up there, or they really hate Palin.

Newsweek's polls show former Clinton supporters behind Obama 88% to 7%. So if Lady Whosiwhatsis de Rothschild doesn't feel pretty stupid right now, she's not the kind of person you'd want to spend a word on.

And now that I see those poll results, maybe I'd better back off on my contention this race is over. McCain, who has banked on a large and deep reservoir of goodwill from middle-of-the-road voters, still leads Obama among independents, albeit by only two points (45 percent to 43 percent). That's actually a slightly better showing for McCain than in the September NEWSWEEK poll, when Obama led McCain 44 percent to 43 percent among voters who described themselves as Independent. Among white Catholics, a group that has voted with the winner of every American presidential contest since 1960, Obama leads McCain by only one point (48 percent to 47 percent).

JUST THE BEGINNING OF THE WAR

I link to this story to make one point: Winning the election is not the end of the war, but the beginning.

Conservatives with any humanity or any respect for our democracy have spoken out against what McCain is doing now. There haven't been many of them. That leaves the vast majority, an immense number, dug into every aspect of society. They think they're being rejected. They see their power ebbing. They think they're being persecuted. They think they're being disrespected. They think they're considered lower than a n----r. They can't take it, and they are enraged. And that's the way race is playing out in this campaign: as a defense, not an offense. Which makes it acceptable.

I used to wonder whether conservatives on TV really believed what they were saying or were using it tactically. The smart polished ones are no different from Joe Sixpack. If they are threatened and enraged, you can see it - and you can assume they mean what they say.

I think it's pretty clear that McCain is enraged. I wonder what he'll do if he loses this election. (One thing you can bet on is there will be no gracious concession speech. It wouldn't be believable anyway.) Will he - or Palin - be content as party leader to front a loyal opposition? Or will he put together an American SA?

Don't forget - he thinks like a soldier. In fact, like a POW. Don't be surprised if McCain goes outside the system.

Republicans are likely going to have to decide whether they want to follow McCain (and democracy) over a cliff, or work within the system and keep America alive. After years of blindly following Bush, Cheney, Delay, Gingrich, etc., my bet is that the dumber of them will gladly go with McCain. So it only gets more dangerous if Obama wins. As badly as the Republicans have fucked us up when in power, they can fuck us up at least equally when they aren't.

NO BOTTOM

It looks to me like somebody out there has decided not to let the market slip below 8,000. I guess the feeling is that below there, there's no bottom.

SLIPPING OVER THE EDGE

A letter from John Kerry reads:

John McCain has shown a stunning failure of leadership. His campaign, in a time of economic crisis and foreign policy drift, has degenerated into a negative and nasty campaign of smears.

The reports are piling up of ugliness at the campaign rallies of John McCain and Sarah Palin. Audience members hurl insults and racial epithets, call out "Kill Him!" and "Off With His Head," and yell "treason" when Senator Obama's name is mentioned. I strongly condemn language like this which can only be described as hate-filled.

According to reports, every ad paid for by the John McCain campaign is now a negative ad -- every single one! McCain allows his running mate to make outrageous charges that only a few years ago would have disqualified someone from serious consideration for national office.

We cannot stand by and allow this to happen. We need to fight back, spread the word about what kind of low campaign he's running, and make sure people know the truth.

No, John. People who could be reasoned with already know the truth. What we are about to find out is how many Americans would have been comfortable with Hitler. No, I am not comparing McCain or Palin to Hitler. I am comparing their crowds to Hitler's crowds.

We always knew they were around us. What do you do about them? What do you do about Muslims who are slipping over the edge?

TELL HIM

My broker says every time Bush speaks the market tanks. This would apparently bear that out.

Couldn't Paulson or somebody tell him to shut the fuck up?

THIS SORT OF SHIT

Why is the stock market so volatile? Here's my guess:

If what we were seeing was a real across-the-board sell-off, the market would keep dropping instead of jumping up and down. What is really happening is that big institutions and computer-driven traders are looking for short term profits. I measure short term not by days, but by hours, if not minutes. The day trader has become the minute trader. They buy something which has been hit, run up the price with volume buys and then unload it twenty minutes later.

If you want stability in the stock market, you have got to ban this sort of shit.

THE KEY

I think this is the key to national survival.

Oil prices are dropping because demand is expected to slow significantly. Why would this be a problem for the US? We don't make anything, so it isn't our production that is slowing down. We sell a lot of things, so we ship a lot by truck. But much of what is shipped nobody needs.

If we're going to have a depression, there ought to be an upside. And the upside ought to be:

1) finance no longer dominates the American economy but resumes the role it ought to have: putting up funds for research and production of worthwhile things which the rest of the world will need to buy;

2) consumption is downgraded to a corollary instead of being what drives the economy. This will put a lot of salespeople (in the larger sense) out of work. But who needs them anyway? What I like about the article I linked to above is that it foresees start-up companies actually using less-skilled Americans to produce what they design. The alternative is Malthusian - war or disease to reduce the population to a size the economy can realistically support. Nobody wants to see that, right?

FINALLY

This says it all. Absolutely brilliant and long overdue.

WATCH 'EM

Anent a number of my former posts on the two Americas:

Keep an eye on where former CEOs run to with all that cash they've robbed us of. I won't be surprised to see them leave the country as soon as they figure out where it is safe for them to go. I don't know - Argentina has proved useful in that regard in the past.

WHAT WE DESERVE

Okay, think about this one:

It's obvious that the US government is going to have to finance the US economy for at least a few years. Where is it going to get the money?

It sure won't be from tax receipts. We've been getting it from China, but why would China want to invest in the US now? The only reason they've been giving us cash is because it kept the US consuming Chinese stuff. If we can't afford consumption, what use are we to them?

"Government support for financial institutions in this crisis is already approaching 6 percent of gross domestic product — compared to less than 4 percent in the savings and loan crisis. This could ultimately place increasing pressure on the U.S. sovereign debt rating and undermine Washington’s ability to finance its requirements from foreign creditors." (Satyajit Das in the Washington Independent)

The final alternative is printing money. Anyone remember the inflation in Weimar Germany? When a loaf of bread costs two billion bucks, we will have gotten what we deserve.

WATCH OUT

The Wall Street Journal writes:

"Changes to Gov. Palin's role were a topic during the conference call Thursday led by campaign manager Rick Davis, according to one person familiar with the discussion. They agreed that she would hold rallies directed at the conservative base in certain key states, including Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Maine and New Hampshire."

This approach seems to be nonsense to me. The conservative base is solid for McCain. It's the top conservative echelon that has its doubts - and since many of the doubts are about Palin, what Palin does now is not likely to allay them.

Palin's personal attacks are not needed with the base, and not likely to help McCain with independents. But there is a consequence to them which has nothing to do with votes.

The WSJ also says:

"Some McCain campaign officials are becoming concerned about the hostility that attacks against Sen. Obama are whipping up among Republican supporters. During an internal conference call Thursday, campaign officials discussed how the tenor of the crowds has turned on the media and on Sen. Obama."

Economic times like these are pre-fascist by definition. Brownshirts are likely to appear - and the McCain campaign is doing its best to see that they do. I have complete faith in the majority of Americans - but none in the conservative base. McCain is turning loose a generation of political murderers, and no one with any influence over those killers is holding them back. George Will certainly can't stop what may come. I doubt, at this point, that McCain can. For many of them, their preachers could quiet them down, but that is not going to happen. The image of that bullet-headed Florida sheriff in his black uniform haranguing Palin's crowd has to have raised fears in people old enough to remember, or educated enough to know about, what happened in Germany in 1933 and after.

In times like these, I don't think you can put that rat back in its cage. I saw tape of one Republican rally where the attendees were furious at the prospect of an Obama win. I understand that fury; I feel it myself when I think that McCain and Palin may get the chance to drag America under. The difference is that I won't act on that fury. The people I saw at the McCain rally will. And, I'm afraid, that rage will burn for the entire term of Obama's presidency. This is what happened to Clinton, but ten times worse. People are going to die here, I'm afraid.

Jews had better pray that Christian Zionism holds - because when the barbarians figure out how many Jews were involved in bringing them to their present financial pass, how long can it be before another Kristallnacht? Greedy Wall Street, McCain keeps saying (it's true, of course). We've heard that code since the Romans sacked the temple.

That's why I've been railing for years now about what I call "bad Jews." The one thing you would have thought Jews would have learned was, if you're going to be a Shylock, keep it quiet. Greenspan et al forgot that - a consequence, I think, of living insular New York lives. They don't see the threat in sophisticated New York - or should I call it "cosmopolitan," another code word. But a lot of us are elsewhere. Watch out.

And here's something else all those Republican Jewish assholes better think about:

With the US financially paralyzed, who's going to help Israel when she gets herself in trouble? You are, baby. No one else. And if Israel attacks Iran and Iran goes after us, who's going to catch the blame? Same answer.

UPDATE from Huffington:

John Weaver, John McCain's former top strategist, says the Republican candidate is making both a moral and a a tactical mistake by letting abusive hecklers have free rein at rallies:

"People need to understand, for moral reasons and the protection of our civil society, the differences with Senator Obama are ideological, based on clear differences on policy and a lack of experience compared to Senator McCain," Weaver said. "And from a purely practical political vantage point, please find me a swing voter, an undecided independent, or a torn female voter that finds an angry mob mentality attractive."

Yesterday, McCain encouraged a questioner who ranted about "socialists taking over our country" and referred to Barack Obama and other Democrats as "hooligans." Watch:

Questioner: I'm mad. I'm really mad. And what's gonna surprise you, it's not the economy. It's the socialists taking over our country. [applause] Sit down, I'm not done! Thank you. Let me finish, please. [laughter]

McCain: Excuse me. [laughter]

Questioner: Thank you. I think its so important in today's country to see what we are missing and what's really going on. When you have an Obama, Pelosi, and the rest of the hooligans up there gonna run this country, we gotta have our head examined. It's time that you two are representing us, and we are mad! So go get em! [applause, chants of USA!]

McCain: Well, I think I got the message. [laughter] Could I just say, the gentleman is right.

One of Washington's longest serving political hands expressed bewilderment and fright over the vitriol coming from McCain-Palin rallies, saying that the anger of the crowds could lead to violence.

"One of the most striking things we've seen in the last few day, we have seen it at the Palin rallies and we saw it at the McCain rally today," said David Gergen, appearing on Anderson Cooper 360 Thursday evening. "And we saw it to a considerable degree during the rescue package legislation. There is a free-floating sort of whipping-around anger that could really lead to some violence. And I think we're not far from that."

Gergen's remark came hours after John McCain and Sarah Palin held a rally in Wisconsin that saw attendees pleading with them to go on the attack against Barack Obama over his past associations and "socialistic" behavior. Earlier in the week crowd members at other McCain-Palin events have screamed out that Obama is a terrorist, has committed treason, and should be killed.

"I really worry when we get people -- when you get the kind of rhetoric that you're getting at these rallies now," said Gergen. "I think it's really imperative the candidates try to calm people down."

Thursday, October 09, 2008

HITCHENS

Read.

YOU TRUST BANKS?

Here's the problem: injecting capital into banks leaves banks in control. They are in control now, and the consequence is they're hoarding cash and not lending. Paulson says he doesn't intend to insist on government seats on the boards of banks they give money to in return for shares. So what's to make the bank lend? What if they use the money for stock buybacks, or give it to their executives? What if they just are not willing to loan it?

The banks have to be cut out of this system. Loans have to come directly from the government.

WHAT'S HE GOING TO DO WITH IT?

Barack Obama has purchased a half-hour of airtime on CBS and NBC. The Obama campaign will air a primetime special on Wednesday, Oct. 29, at 8 p.m.

I have been saying that for all intents and purposes the race is over, and that - in view of the present crisis and the complete absence of George Bush - he needs to behave as president and announce right now, as a confidence builder, exactly what he will do immediately on being sworn in to fix the situation. In fact, I think he ought to put together a plan right now and give it to Congress to bring to the floor before he's even sworn in.

He could use this half hour to do just that - but nothing's announced as to what he intends to do with it. For the purposes I outline, October 29 is too late. This is something he needs to do now, which will as a corollary make him look way more presidential.

There is, however, another point of view.

GETTING THERE

Well, I said 8,000. We're almost there.

The private sector is not stepping up to make loans to unfreeze credit. Considering the consequences, I have to conclude either 1) that the banks somehow are going to profit from a crash, or 2)that bankers are just as scared as everyone else. If it's the latter, they need to be gotten rid of. We don't need cowards in charge of things right now.

The only answer is for the government to take over the credit market completely - that is, to cut the banks out of the loop and make direct loans to the companies and people who need them.

A week ago that was unthinkable. We're getting there, too.

Drop the bailout. Let finance eat itself.

NOW THEY GET IT?

Every once in a while - like every five minutes - I feel like talking about how smart I am.

Here's what I've said about Allan Greenspan (you don't have to read all of it, it's very consistent):

2/17/05 - And when are we going to get rid of Greenspan? He's a shill for his own industry, has no credibility and is probably verging on senile dementia by now.

3/4/05 - 3/4/05 - Yes yes yes! I've been saying it, and now he's proved it: Alan Greenspan is a secret agent for the GOP!

4/23/05 - Now that Alan Greenspan has come out of the closet and declared himself a supporter of radical right financial proposals, can't we treat him with the same contempt we have for the rest of them?

8/27/05 - "At the conference's opening session Friday, Greenspan was lauded by current and former colleagues and other analysts for his performance and wisdom as Fed chief. "When the score is toted up, we think he has a legitimate claim to being the greatest central banker who ever lived," wrote former Fed vice chairman Alan S. Blinder and Ricardo Reis, both Princeton University economists, in a paper presented Friday." Excuse me? Just who is the guy who's been raising interest rates around here? Oh, I know Greenspan can only raise short-term interest rates - but if they continue to go up, it would be financial idiocy to keep long-term rates low. Is Daddy trying to give us a subtle tip - like: he has it in mind that sooner or later we're gonna get fucked?

9/30/05 - Cheney, Rice and Rumsfeld are clearly bright. They couldn't possibly believe their own lies, but they can't help lying - their brains make them do it. Can't blame them for their biology. Same for Alan Greenspan and Paul Wolfowitz. About Tom DeLay, I'm still on the fence.

8/27/06 - This is the second time in recent years that the Federal Reserve has implemented a bubble and then brought it down, by manipulating interest rates. They implemented this bubble by drastically dropping interest rates, and they have implemented the crash by raising them. Since they did the same thing in the dot com bubble, it can't be reasonably suggested that the Fed didn't know exactly what result it would produce. It's also hard to believe that the Fed could not have figured out an interest rate policy that would have been more moderate, less rote and knee-jerk, and prevented both bubbles and the subsequent crashes. So it has to be true that the Fed intended to create these bubbles, and then to pop them. Why? Because people with a lot of money are making money at both ends, first by feeding the bubble and then by picking up the scraps of the crash. The only people who get hurt by bubbles or crashes are little people who don't have the inside knowledge to invest more wisely. This is why I have said Alan Greenspan was a rat.

3/11/07 - Greenspan says - or doesn't say - what he's paid to say (or not say). I.e., he's a paid-for intellectual (sort of). I never have respected him and that's not going to change now.

12/14/07 - Once mortgages were securitized, issuing mortgages to as many people as possible, qualified or not, was intended to suck as much money as possible away from the lower and middle classes and into the hands of the wealthy who owned those securities. Any bank which held onto those securities was run by fools, and it still amazes me how many fools there are out there. It is not necessary to sympathize with the holders of these securities; they have more than enough money to withstand the loss. They planned this outcome, essentially, unless they believed that the bubble could not burst - and I refused to believe that the people who devised mortgage securitization were that deluded. Alan Greenspan was a big help with this, and deserves a large share of the blame. I bet he's still making big bucks on the lecture circuit - paid by people who want to know the next scam ahead of time.

12/14/07 - Alan Greenspan was deified for wrong predictions and opinions. In Greenspan's case, there's a more nefarious side to it - because I think the opinions and predictions he gave were motivated by the desire to reach particular ends which were not to the benefit of Americans. I.e., Greenspan's mouth was a capitalist tool - more specifically, the tool of a very limited number of a certain type of capitalist.

12/18/07 - Naomi Klein says that an economic crisis can set the conditions for a corporate takeover of a state. (If you haven't read "The Shock Doctrine", you must - it's the most important book of the last twenty years.) Suppose Alan Greenspan helped engineer the housing bubble to create that crisis? Suppose the "sub-prime meltdown" is a Friedmanite plan?

1/18/08 - Then we have the government, which never warned anyone of the risk of the housing bubble. For that dereliction of duty, every cent Alan Greenspan has should be taken from him and used to bail out the honest and unscheming folks who got caught in this mess.

3/3/08 - Wonder if the idea behind the Fed's inflating the housing bubble by taking interest rates down so low was to fool the American public into thinking they were participating in the benefits of the Bush tax cuts and corporate deregulation? When do we try Greenspan for treason?

3/19/08 - I have said for years that Alan Greenspan is the moral equivalent of a war criminal - a traitor, in fact, to what used to be the essence of America.

7/14/08 - Alan Greenspan must be condemned to an eternity of being a contestant on "The Bachelorette."

7/21/08 - Economists are like shrinks in this way, too: they create illnesses which they then get paid to treat. The difference is that shrinks create illnesses by defining conduct as sick; economists actually make people sick. Nobody ever blames either of them for making, or calling, people sick. If they did, Allan Greenspan would be serving fifty years, and shrinks would be digging ditches in a new Cultural Revolution.

AND FINALLY THE NEW YORK TIMES IS GETTING IT?
Read it and weep. And then read this. Two things to notice when you do. 1) Like all neocons, Greenspan accepts no blame. And 2) will Mr. Obama please stop consulting with the people who are exposed in this article?

Lest we forget: a lot of the damage Greenspan did was done in the Clinton years. Who's going to call the Clintons on it?

MCNASTY

Read.

Wednesday, October 08, 2008

TRUTH

Just in case you're interested in the truth:

Former officials say Iran helped on al-Qaida
By BARRY SCHWEID –
WASHINGTON (AP) — In an effort to help the United States counter al-Qaida after the 9/11 attack, Iran rounded up hundreds of Arabs who had crossed the border from Afghanistan, expelled many of them and made copies of nearly 300 of their passports, a former Bush administration official said Tuesday.

The copies were sent to Kofi Annan, the U.N. secretary-general, who passed them on to the United States, while U.S. interrogators were given a chance by Iran to question some of the detainees, Hillary Mann Leverett said in an Associated Press interview.

Leverett, who said she negotiated with Iran for the Bush administration in the 2001-3 period, said Iran sought a broader relationship with the United States. "They thought they had been helpful on al-Qaida, and they were," she said.

For one thing, she said, suspected al-Qaida operatives were not given sanctuary in Iran.

Some administration officials took the view, however, that Iran had not acknowledged all likely al-Qaida members nor provided access to them, Leverett said.

Many of the expelled Arabs were deported to Saudi Arabia and to other Arab and Muslim countries, even though Iran had poor relations with the Saudi monarchy and some other countries in the region, Leverett said.

James F. Dobbins, the Bush administration's chief negotiator on Afghanistan in late 2001, said that Iran was "comprehensively helpful" in the aftermath of the 9/11 attack in working to overthrow the Taliban and collaborating with the United States in installing the Karzai government in Kabul.

Iranian diplomats made clear at the time they were looking for broader cooperation with the United States, but the Bush administration was not interested, the author of "After the Taliban: Nation-Building in Afghanistan," said in a separate interview.

The Bush administration has acknowledged contacts with Iran over the years even while denouncing Iran as part of an "axis of evil" and declining to consider a resumption of diplomatic relations.

"It isn't something that is talked about," Leverett said in describing Iran's role during a forum at the New America Foundation, a nonpartisan policy institute.

Leverett and her husband, Flynt Leverett, a former career CIA analyst and a former National Security Council official, jointly proposed the next U.S. president seek a "grand bargain" with Iran to settle all major outstanding differences.

"The next president needs to reorient U.S. policy toward Iran as fundamentally as President Nixon did with China in the 1970s," Flynt Leverett said.

Among the provisions: The United States would clarify that it is not seeking change in the nature of the Iranian regime but rather in its policies, while Iran would agree to "certain limits" on its nuclear program.

Iran considers most of its neighbors as enemies. Among its incentives for improving U.S. relations is that they feel that Pakistan and Saudi Arabia would be less provocative, the Leveretts said.

SLIPPING BACK?

In an appearance today, McCain said: "Across this country this is the agenda I have set before my fellow prisoners."

Normally I think it's ridiculous to critique a candidate for slips like this. But this one may be different.

I have had a lot of clients, Vietnam vets, who in moments of stress have gone back to Vietnam in their minds. For any Vietnam vet, it seems to me, the war is always with them, and I have never believed that anyone could have come back from that war completely sane.

So, in the stress of the campaign, and with his POW experience constantly on his mind as he constantly touts it, is McCain slipping back?

You don't want a president with that problem.

TO THE MOON

Why not have Al Gore and his friends and allies draft a practical plan for the development and implementation of alternative energy sources through a government/private enterprise collaboration? The government can do three things:

1) Fund government r&d and promising private r&d (in return for equity stakes),
2) capitalize the shift from r&d to production, and
3) require that manufacturing be done in the US with US workers and that price and profit margins be reasonable.

In the 1st and 2nd function, the government would essentially be operating as a venture capitalist - the difference being that the public at large would reap the rewards. In the 3rd function, it would operate as China does. They seem to be doing all right.

This is what government used to do before Ronald Reagan. It got us to the moon. Look what Reagan got us.

It's time we began to learn what Obama would actually do as president, after he's finished pandering and simplifying. Because, let me tell you, if he isn't a combination of JFK and FDR, the best we'll get is an interregnum until 2012. America seems to have lost the knack of developing good public policy - small wonder, since Reagan. Obama doesn't seem to be very good at it. But there must be people out there who can do it. Whoever they are, we need them now.

We can start with Gary Hart, who just wrote: "We must transform our economy from one of consumption to one of production, invest much more heavily in new technologies, research, and invention, and start the process of creating a post-carbon economy. The current wreckage must not simply be put back together to recreate the old economy. It must be pushed out of the way to make space for a new, 21st century economy."

Or how about Kevin Phillips?

How about getting involved in this?

Marc Ginsburg?

Robert Creamer

Steven Pearlstein

UPDATE:

Sen. Barack Obama has organized an elaborate well-staffed network to prepare for his possible ascension to the White House, while Sen. John McCain has all but put off such work until after the election. The Democratic nominee has enlisted the assistance of dozens of individuals -- divided into working groups for particular federal agencies -- to produce policy agendas and lists of recommended appointees. As evidence of their advanced preparations, officials provided a copy of the strict ethics guidelines that individuals working on the transition effort are required to sign.

I just think some of these policy positions have to be put out NOW.

NOTHING

In yesterday's debate John McCain told us he wants the federal government to nationalize much of the home mortgage industry, buying up loans from strained homeowners and renegotiating new, more affordable terms.

Naturally, I like it. But he'll never do it. It would be anathema to conservatives.

Bush said he wants to go to Mars. McCain wants to nationalize mortgages. Nothing happened on the first, and nothing will happen on the second.

Tuesday, October 07, 2008

TROOPERGATE

Since I'm into predicting tonight, let me try one more: Friday will be the critical date of this campaign.

That's because on Friday the Troopergate report will be released (theoretically. If it isn't, all bets are off. And a court order may stop the release; there will be a hearing on that question tomorrow.)

Todd Palin and seven other defiant subpoenaees have now agreed to be deposed. I'm sure the purpose is to delay the report. I have not seen one word in the press about when these depositions are supposed to take place, or whether the report is going to be dalayed. I can't think of anything more important, so please, somebody, let us know.

CAN'T STOP IT

Two polls are already out on the debate:

CNN poll of debate viewers: Obama 54%, McCain 30%
CBS poll of uncommitted voters: Obama 39%, McCain 27%

The punditocracy is also calling this a clear win for Obama.

Obama did not win this debate. What has happened, however, is that the Rubicon has previously been crossed. Obama is winning, and therefore perceived as winning the debate. It's a story line that feeds itself. And that is something McCain is not going to be able to stop.

THE BOTTOM

Something is telling me the stock market turmoil will be over in the next two weeks. The bottom may be around 8,000. After that, it will head back up. Don't ask me why I think this, because I have no clue. It's pure intuition, and I'll be damn curious to see whether I got this half right.

HE DIDN'T

The questions were excellent. Many of them offered great opportunities for new vision statements - what I've previously called pseudo-inaugural moments: for example, the chance to let people know what they would do on the economy as soon as they took office - or on anything else. A JFK moment. It was FDR's "fear" speech that started the 1932 recovery. But neither candidate stepped up. However, the way they addressed the debate was very different.

Obama kept saying what he has said a million times before. (That was the opinion of the CNN focus group as to both candidates.) There were no new ideas, no new phraseology, despite the fact that both are desperately needed in this crisis. McCain, too, said nothing new. But he sounded like he was being visionary - and if I were undecided, I would have gone for him (assuming, since I was undecided, that obvious things like the Supreme Court didn't matter to me.)

Obama was badly coached. McCain didn't need coaching in this environment. Obama could have iced this election tonight. He didn't. He could have, with specifics, given the economy a push toward confidence. He didn't. Not presidential.

People expect the next president to hit the ground running, at least on the economy. Neither of these yokels is capable of that. They need to take some time off, sit down with smart people and come up with a plan, or at least the first steps of a plan - and we need to hear it, not after the election, but before.

Because Bush has abdicated. The government economic response is being run by his subordinates. He'd be the first to admit he don't know nothin' about economics. Is this something new? Hardly. Bush actually abdicated the day he was sworn in. His government has always been run by his "subordinates," because Bush don't know nothin' about nothin'.

To make a quick recovery, we need to be led. Obama could have done that. He failed, because he doesn't seem to want to lead - and that gives me pause as to whether he is the president we are going to need.

IGNORANT

Couric had a piece tonight on "elderspeak", the habit of talking to older adults as if they were children, or puppies. Not only do some alte kockers resent that, but other more weak-willed seniors take it as a cue to act like the children they're treated as.

It results from people considering themselves superior, or simple disrespect. Or simple inability to understand how to deal with people. Frankly, I think the same behavior addressed to kids is presumptuous. And the average puppy is probably not that much dumber than you.

Cut it out. It's pathetically ignorant.

RESTORE THE SOCIAL CONTRACT

Not long ago I suggested that, rather than buying up bad loans, the Federal government should go into the loan business itself, making loans directly to people who needed them. Socialism, they'd say. So be it.

Now the Fed has begun to go down that path, making direct loans to businesses which can't get credit elsewhere. Most of these are short term loans, so the risk is not extended out - and the government will know within a week whether a loan will be repaid or not. This is the most positive step I've yet seen, although Wall Street apparently doesn't think so - or is it that things have been allowed to go so far that reasoning is no longer a part of stock market decisions?

The next step will be to extend loans to "consumers" - those we used to call "people" before the national mindset was manipulated to consider buying the reason people exist. Not quite socialism - socialism would require grants, not loans. But close enough so that people might finally understand that the free market has not been their friend.

Frankly, I think it is going to have to come to that. And why not? What better way to restore the social contract than having all of us make the loans to keep the economy going?

TO BE DELIGHTED

The tragedy of Wall Street is that, while probably most of the bad actors had some sense that what they were doing was wrong, they simply did not give a shit. The tragedy of the evangelicals is that, when they played Rovian political games, they were convinced they were right. The tragedy of the public is that many of them, while angry at big wigs' misbehavior, have no sense that they themselves ever do anything wrong. The civilized core of America has been missing - the part that requires one to give a shit about other people.

Conservatives say the core of their philosophy is personal responsibility. Does that mean they consider themselves responsible for the consequences of their hate speech, their exclusionary attitudes, their sense of superiority? Only if the consequences cause damage to themselves.

This crisis and this election - these times - will determine by their outcome whether anything is left of the core of America.

It's time for another counterculture. It may even be possible, now that every college kid is not going to find a job on Wall Street, now that people are being wiped out, now that the people who were contemptuous of the last counterculture have proven themselves soulless and purposeless.

It might be nice to build on what the '60's had - for a short time, anyway: the joy of community, celebration of the senses, adoration of creativity and moral intelligence, eagerness to tear down what their predecessors created. But this counterculture can't just tune in, turn on, drop out - although I don't see anything wrong with any of those. This counterculture needs to use technology and the sense of global community that has been building, online and directly. It needs to build or co-opt those technological advances which are the only thing which can keep America competitive. It needs to ignore the shrieking hysterics on the right, bury them deep if possible. It needs to be optimistic. It needs to be delighted.

Could happen, maybe. We'll see.

YOU NEVER KNOW

McCain and Palin are laying the groundwork for violence. Stirring up the crazies. But they had better watch it: there is a lot of hate out there right now, and they might find it directed toward them. True, it's far more likely that one of theirs will pull out a gun than one of Obama's. But things are so unsettled now, you never know. And if I were on Wall Street, I'd stay home.

To introduce an outside element: Bin Laden's people are certainly believing that they produced this American disaster. They're likely to strike at a wounded animal.

There is going to be blood spilled somewhere. Andrew Sullivan put this up on his blog The Daily Dish:

An Israeli reader writes:

Your post on "The Danger of Obama" immediately brought to mind what happened here in Israel in the period leading up to Yitzhak Rabin's assassination. Even allowing for the differences in political culture between the two countries, some of the sounds we're hearing in the public debate around the election have a haunting echo. Here no one would have thought it possible that an Israeli Jew would take the life of a high official. There's little doubt that the crescendo of demonization toward Rabin – including accusations of treason, flyers picturing Rabin as an SS officer – and the difficulty, in a society guaranteeing free speech, of 'civilizing' the public debate before it creates a fertile bed for actual violence, all helped create the context in which Rabin's murderer decided to take matters into his own hands.

JAIL

Considering what Waxman's committee is coming up with, some people will need to be in jail before this economic meltdown slows up. You want public confidence? That's the way to get it.

THE HOMOGENIZED WORLD

Read.

ESSENTIAL UGLINESS



Leave it to the WSJ to catch the essential ugliness of Sarah Palin. Her soul comes through her makeup.

UNLIKELY

In the latest WSJ/CBS poll, Sens. Obama and Biden have a six-point lead, with 49% of registered voters saying they would vote for them, compared with 43% for Sen. McCain and Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin.

Assuming that people who have made their choice will not switch - which, in this climate, is pretty likely absent a miserable Obama debate performance or something new on the ground - and if this poll is correct, there are only 8% undecideds left. If McCain gets all of them, the best he can do is 2% better than Obama. But McCain getting all of them is very unlikely - people who like him are already on board.

A PLAN

Can't stand Deepak Chopra, but here he lays out a plan which Obama should adopt and start talking up immediately.

Monday, October 06, 2008

CRAZY MAD

You have to suspect that the reason the Obama campaign finally brought up the Keating 5 was to make McCain so crazy mad that he runs out of control.

I'm glad they put it on the web, though, and not TV. You don't want people to think he's as mean as McCain.

THE JFK/FDR CARD

McCain's final strategy is so mind-numbingly stupid that I have to conclude that the former brilliant Republican strategists are out of ideas, out of the campaign or dead - or that we have finally reached the moment where lies and smears don't work. Of course, if the American public is mind-numbingly stupid, the approach will succeed. I just do not think they are. Not after seeing the post-debate polls where the public showed a sophistication I sometimes despair of.

What should Obama do now? He can take a few easy swats at the smears. He can point out the parallels between now and 1929 when the Republicans also were in charge. On the whole, though, I think he should ignore McCain, using McCain's own theory that recognizing a weak rival enriches him (this is McCain re Ahmadinejad.)

It's time for Obama to play the JFK/FDR card. I am hoping he has some actual economic solutions in his kit for tomorrow's debate. If he doesn't - and I would be surprised if he did, considering he's rather busy running a campaign - he can take the easy shot of giving the public a snapshot of the re-regulation legislation he intends to introduce this week, and that Democrats in Congress will push through. It wouldn't hurt if there was some "we have nothing to fear but fear itself" language, or "ask not" language, or something which one would usually find in an inaugural address. After all, there is no government at the moment, and he's moving ahead, so why not behave like a president?

DELAY (NOT TOM)

Seven aides to Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin have reversed course and agreed to testify in an investigation into whether the Republican vice presidential nominee abused her powers by firing a commissioner who refused to dismiss her former brother-in-law.

There is only one reason for this. The investigative report was due out this week. This will probably delay it.

OY!

As I have mentioned, I have been reading "The Family" by Jeff Sharlet, which describes a Christian fundamentalist group which has, for about sixty years, been run by people I never heard of and has had great influence in - and to some extent control of - American and international politics. The intrigues sound like a history of the Vatican - so bizarre that you'll find it hard to believe. But it's apparently true.

And then I read a story on the Huffington Post which I abridge as follows:
JERUSALEM — In Israel's ultra-Orthodox Jewish community, where the rule of law sometimes takes a back seat to the rule of God, zealots are on a campaign to stamp out behavior they consider unchaste. They hurl stones at women for such "sins" as wearing a red blouse, and attack stores selling devices that can access the Internet.

In recent weeks, self-styled "modesty patrols" have been accused of breaking into the apartment of a Jerusalem woman and beating her for allegedly consorting with men. They have torched a store that sells MP4 players, fearing devout Jews would use them to download pornography.

"These breaches of purity and modesty endanger our community," said 38-year-old Elchanan Blau, defending the bearded, black-robed zealots. "If it takes fire to get them to stop, then so be it."

This story should horrify American Jews, as it describes their co-religionists behaving like the Saudis or the Taliban, creating the same sort of violent intolerance that led to 9/11. But it apparently doesn't, as there has been not a word about this except for the one story I happened to read.

So is there a Jewish equivalent of the Family? Sure. You can see how it works through AIPAC and the ADL and a number of other Jewish organizations - and it would probably be easier to identify the Jewish Family than it was to identify the Christian one.

Sarah Palin has been talking up American exceptionalism - which is not a political but a religious doctrine, in that it's based on fiction and faith. So it's Christian American exceptionalism she's talking about. And American fundamentalists, including the Family, take the exceptionalist position that they have replaced the Jews as the chosen people. That AIPAC et al continue to press the Jews as the chosen people only proves to me that they're as crazy as the Christians.

Exceptionalism doesn't exist except as a cover for imperial ambitions. So now we have Jewish imperialism? Oy! We've come a long way from the Holocaust, baby.

Sunday, October 05, 2008

WHAT'S WRONG

Want to know what's wrong with the way the financial situation is being handled?

There's a fight between Citigroup (in trouble) and Wells Fargo (in trouble) to buy Wachovia (in a lot of trouble.) Does this make the slightest sense for any of them?

FLESH IT OUT

Here's the only negative ad I'd put out now:

When a candidate has no new ideas for the future, all he can do is tell lies about the past.

And flesh it out.

WHAT WE NEED

McCain wants the courts to stop the Troopergate investigation.

If they do, wouldn't that be "legislating from the bench"?

Cynical, hypocritical, ends justifying all means. Man, do we need another president like that.

Saturday, October 04, 2008

FARMGIRL

I've been saying that Alaska is what Texas was 100 years ago. With her youbetchas, doggone-its and winks, Sarah Palin proves me right. She's a ghost from the past. She's older than McCain. We don't have "mavericks" anymore. Nobody under 100 says doggoneit. I haven't seen anyone wink since Ed Wynn died. Best I'll give her is fifty years - in the pages of Archie comics. Is this supposed to appeal to someone out there?

SNL needs to do her as the farmgirl she is.

Friday, October 03, 2008

WHAT IF THEY VOTE?

I would not take any comfort in the fact that the audience for the VP debate far exceeded that for the presidential debate. It did not indicate more attention being paid to politics - at least not in any meaningful way.

Palin is hot tabloid stuff. They weren't watching to educate themselves. They were watching the same way they read about Lindsay Lohan. What if these people actually vote?

WHAT THEY'RE SAYING IN CHINA

What are they saying in China tonight? Here's my guess:

Sarah Palin is the reason we won't allow democracy in China.

For a country to do well in the globalized world - including all of its citizens - it must be led by intelligent, knowledgeable, pragmatic people. Our leaders are all three these days - which is why we are doing so well. The American democracy still produces such people - but it also produces incompetents. If they elect incompetents, they can't compete. That is a chance we will not take.

I RELAXED

11.1 million watched the debate on Fox News. They wanted to see Palin kick liberal ass. Which she did, by their lights. And, by their lights, that was inevitable. No liberal can stand up to a hockey mom.

They were never Obama's voters, and there was never a chance that they would be.

By contrast, only 4.4 million watched on MSNBC. Many progressives have given up on TV as dead - and many more couldn't bear to watch Biden make a stupid mistake and hand the election to McCain.

I was one of the latter - but I overcame my fear. So I got to be ecstatic when Biden turned out to be brilliant. The moment for me was when Palin had said - as she had told Couric - that she didn't know what caused global warming, but that the cause didn't matter, what was important was that we fix it. And Biden pointed out that if you don't know the cause, there's no way you're going to know how to fix it or what to fix.

I made that point on Wednesday, the day before the debate. So, knowing that Biden was at least as smart as I am, I could - and did - relax.

WHOSE ASS?

So they pass the bailout and the market drops - allegedly because the market doesn't think the plan will work.

Makes you want to kick somebody's ass, if you could figure out whose ass to kick.
Get the latest news satire and funny videos at 236.com.

WHY?

Just watched a video of Barney Frank raked over the coals by O'Reilly.

Can anyone explain to me why any reasonable human being would deign to appear on Fox? Their audience is unreachable by anyone outside the right wing. There is simply no point to it.

NO WAY OUT

How do you ever fix an economy when consumer spending accounts for more than two-thirds of the nation's economic activity?

People who used to be thought of as workers are now thought of as consumers. Their raison d'etre is no longer to make something useful, but to buy something they have no real use for - and which, in most cases, loses its value within days of its purchase, if not immediately.

This results from an alliance between retailers and bankers - and by retailers I include many American manufacturers, whose products are made elsewhere and whose only real function is selling. They have to encourage ever more consumer debt while at the same time the debt makes the economy subject to what's happening now.

A moment like the present can be transitional. In politics, it causes people to stop focusing on the trivial and actually concern themselves with issues and solutions. That is the death knell for Republicanism, if it continues. The question, of course, is: will it?

In economics, if this situation lasts long enough, Americans will stop spending on things they don't need. That will put a lot of Americans out of work, drive down non-global stocks and put most Americans (who are not globalized) in a hole. Or, should I say, in a different hole - because, considering what I've said above, what keeps them out of the unemployment hole puts them in the debt hole. They've got no way out of this.

I have no idea how to fix it now. It's been going on too long. But I'm watching to see if someone gets it right.

Thursday, October 02, 2008

COURIC'S BALLS

Why did Palin come off better tonight than with Couric?

The off-point answers she gave tonight were very similar to the answers she initially gave Couric. But Couric wouldn't let her get away with it. Ifill did. I doubt Ifill had a choice - if she'd been more aggressive she would have been attacked as pro-Obama - you know, he's black, and the book and all.

Palin doesn't need to stay away from the media. She needs to stay away from Couric, or anyone with Couric's balls.

Wednesday, October 01, 2008

VP DEBATE

What I'm hoping is that, in the face of the economic problems, being cute and harping on cultural issues will no longer do it for the great majority of voters. I hope they'll be looking for intelligence - and I hope Biden gives it to them. Best advice to him: forget Palin is there. Just answer the question as thoughtfully as you usually do - leaving out the part of thoughtfulness where you advocate two sides at once.

THE COMPANY OF ADULTS

I've now watched Katie Couric's news for two nights. It's wonderful to be in the company of adults. I think she's slipping into Walter Cronkite's shoes. Why didn't someone tell me this was going on?

By the way, on that news Jeff Greenfield predicted the return of Jeremiah Wright to Republican harangues in the next few weeks. That would be a dangerous thing to do. I can see the 527 responses on Hagee and Palin's church in Wasilla.

SORT OF

In her Couric interview yesterday, Palin, when asked whether she thought global warming was manmade, said it was not important right now what causes it; what's important is doing something about it.

So how do you do something about it if you don't know what causes it?

Sort of like the economy, huh?

SOROS' PLAN

Soros proposes that Instead of purchasing troubled assets, the bulk of the funds ought to be used to recapitalize the banking system. “The bank examiners would establish how much additional equity capital each bank needs in order to be properly capitalized according to existing capital requirements.” Then the government would purchase equity in companies saddled with distressed assets.

This is partial nationalization, which presents big problems. Robert Shapiro, chairman of Sonecon, an economic advisory firm, who served as Commerce Department undersecretary during the Clinton administration, asks: how does the government vote the shares? It puts them in a potential conflict of interest. Regulatory interests may hurt the bottom line.

The international financier would also like the government to take direct action to shore up the ailing housing market. The Treasury would provide cheap financing for mortgage securities whose terms have been renegotiated, based on Treasury’s cost of borrowing. As I've said before, why not just have the government refinance the houses, not the securities?

SOON TO KNOW

House Republicans have come up with an alternative financial plan. It should receive serious scrutiny, first from economists, then from congresspeople. I don't understand a lot of what it would do. But it appears to me we will soon know whether free market Reaganite views are still dominant in America.